{"id":"W4414181794","doi":"10.1029/2024gl113940","title":"Yucatan Hurricane Activity Highlights Common Era Tropical Cyclone Dipole","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Geophysical Research Letters","topic":"Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research","field":"Earth and Planetary Sciences","cited_by":1,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"McMaster University","funders":"University of Texas at Austin; Geological Society of America; National Centers for Environmental Information; National Science Foundation","keywords":"Intertropical Convergence Zone; Tropical cyclone; Yucatan peninsula; Atlantic hurricane; Latitude; Proxy (statistics); Northern Hemisphere; Climate change","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"category_scores_codex":[0.0002604958,0.0002775294,0.0004786128,0.000315151,0.0007476278,0.0002834957,0.00099413,0.0001521786,0.001291509],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0002609093,0.0002078606,0.000209626,0.001559109,0.001100757,0.0003029235,0.0001874047,0.001862956,0.002965468],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0000586939,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0001531821,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.02228755,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.003237975,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9947811,0.000842482,0.0003090855,0.0007990422,0.001623558,0.001644672],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9970343,0.001508585,0.00003458674,0.0006627536,0.0001145396,0.0006452597],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00176822,0.0009282284,0.625632,0.0001870524,0.0002043419,0.0005260519,0.00008901246,0.0001180011,0.04358697,0.02345407,0.05106121,0.2524448],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0004842761,0.0002832155,0.957985,0.00003035,0.000009619181,0.000002320726,0.00001737019,0.001125601,0.001434263,0.004553305,0.03385054,0.0002240918],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9448388,0.0001493563,0.0002710985,0.04724588,0.0002592696,0.0003696373,0.00004805873,0.0001047686,0.006713195],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9968837,0.00006285173,0.0002086348,0.001141002,0.0005499046,0.00001701494,0.00005044375,0.000008150623,0.001078277],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.332353,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9996215,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02505230722144718,"score_gpt":0.3103152094032489,"score_spread":0.2852629021818017,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}