{"id":"W4414272182","doi":"10.1109/ichms65439.2025.11154380","title":"Causal Modeling for Student Major Selection Decisions","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"","topic":"Intelligent Tutoring Systems and Adaptive Learning","field":"Computer Science","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Calgary","funders":"Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada","keywords":"Structural equation modeling; Causal model; Confirmatory factor analysis; Probabilistic logic; Selection (genetic algorithm); Latent variable; Key (lock); Causal analysis","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0002719131,0.00006797282,0.00008585345,0.0001070456,0.000232682,0.0001532677,0.0002897751,0.00003160893,0.000004529968],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00006206986,0.00005714163,0.00005313786,0.0002067278,0.00000268543,0.0001453709,0.00009686896,0.00006655222,0.00001699888],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00006106223,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00005081565,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0000737283,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00002424377,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9992902,0.0000204055,0.0001695991,0.0002337124,0.0001207908,0.0001652643],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9995377,0.0001223473,0.00002302599,0.0001442088,0.0001469686,0.0000257418],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000002247767,0.00002065005,0.0003943667,0.000003843655,0.00001900112,3.671194e-7,0.0001508992,0.03754601,0.0005440412,0.9540231,0.0004717521,0.006823738],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001409717,0.00004178636,0.0001784889,0.00005257686,0.000004836399,0.000001498927,0.0001105636,0.9687734,0.001163724,0.003524424,0.0259231,0.00008466054],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.00921732,0.00003831052,0.9859098,0.0002619372,0.0007285885,0.0001915095,1.866361e-7,0.0001470272,0.003505322],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.8673974,0.000002223997,0.08261871,0.0001514868,0.00008874896,0.0000430919,4.313224e-7,0.000004327739,0.04969364],"genre_candidate":"methods","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.9504986,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.2330168,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03760404905708595,"score_gpt":0.3296925073506645,"score_spread":0.2920884582935785,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}