{"id":"W4414700069","doi":"10.1016/j.insmatheco.2025.103164","title":"Robust parameter estimation for the Lee-Carter family: A probabilistic principal component approach","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Insurance Mathematics and Economics","topic":"Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Actua; University of Waterloo","funders":"","keywords":"Estimation theory; Probabilistic logic; Component (thermodynamics); Principal component analysis; Estimation; Robustness (evolution); Identification (biology); Bayesian probability","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.008032717,0.001280171,0.001570654,0.001942534,0.000567982,0.001470099,0.00197922,0.001220134,0.001919238],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0214984,0.0007730452,0.00182588,0.00198549,0.001275437,0.001945845,0.0017631,0.002625306,0.0006282219],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.000644914,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001662246,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.004359461,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.003042658,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9969066,0.001798434,0.0001265611,0.0005194799,0.00051676,0.0001321656],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9928919,0.00486273,0.0007435469,0.0007282004,0.0006616378,0.0001119665],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00008017347,0.00004989924,0.003367043,0.0001763432,0.0003316462,0.0001268695,0.000140034,0.7941881,0.002002388,0.09727351,0.001790278,0.1004737],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000003584716,0.00001524223,0.0004277124,0.00001327373,0.00001445912,0.00003643872,0.00001320428,0.9740021,0.0003325601,0.02434224,0.0007789537,0.00002016837],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"methods","genre_scores_codex":[0.001998996,0.00008456976,0.9975956,0.00004538926,0.000007928786,0.00001339707,0.00003206284,0.00006598345,0.0001560462],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.2855733,0.001211176,0.7090527,0.0001540286,0.0001962864,0.0003661815,0.0007953058,0.0003123897,0.002338673],"genre_candidate":"methods","genre_consensus":"methods","teacher_disagreement_score":0.008032717,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.0424816,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.05060191496105669,"score_gpt":0.2776046144243698,"score_spread":0.2270026994633131,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}