{"id":"W4414785412","doi":"10.1093/mnrasl/slaf106","title":"Model predictions for the 2025 October Draconid Outburst","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society Letters","topic":"Earthquake Detection and Analysis","field":"Earth and Planetary Sciences","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Espace pour la vie; Western University","funders":"Nuclear Safety and Security Commission; National Aeronautics and Space Administration","keywords":"Meteoroid; Meteor (satellite); Comet; Comet dust; Meteor shower; Asteroid; Comet tail","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0002215777,0.0001222109,0.0001662439,0.0000174002,0.0004826038,0.00006415903,0.0004462595,0.00005772886,0.0001638434],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00003161705,0.00007161032,0.0006308752,0.0001385236,0.0002448262,0.00007000962,0.00003370848,0.0001915791,0.00001131001],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00001261088,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00003669661,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.000729396,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0008387661,"domain_scores_codex":[0.99913,0.00003908047,0.0002457482,0.0002084914,0.0001376169,0.0002390446],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9992016,0.0003493497,0.0001090057,0.0002675127,0.00002701534,0.0000455084],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00001960589,0.00001191691,0.05416594,0.000007949981,0.0001818277,8.112142e-9,0.00006777298,0.9313473,0.00001069373,0.00001110444,0.01189632,0.002279514],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001801037,0.00001022318,0.2050527,0.000008645847,0.000166231,2.966358e-9,0.0001260193,0.7916069,0.00004458771,0.00001908107,0.002729149,0.00005639597],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9546933,0.0002333939,0.01515891,0.02800047,0.0005517924,0.0003343062,0.0002501765,0.00003279652,0.0007449097],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.994442,5.574603e-7,0.001792714,0.001823517,0.0001041845,0.00000683833,0.00001625973,0.000002856706,0.001811073],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.1508867,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.3711847,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01169594081469943,"score_gpt":0.2085400469591112,"score_spread":0.1968441061444117,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}