{"id":"W4414785412","doi":"10.1093/mnrasl/slaf106","title":"Model predictions for the 2025 October Draconid Outburst","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society Letters","topic":"Earthquake Detection and Analysis","field":"Earth and Planetary Sciences","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Espace pour la vie; Western University","funders":"Nuclear Safety and Security Commission; National Aeronautics and Space Administration","keywords":"Meteoroid; Meteor (satellite); Comet; Comet dust; Meteor shower; Asteroid; Comet tail","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0007403754,0.0007518005,0.0005483177,0.0005209476,0.0005513674,0.001009692,0.001046383,0.001361441,0.003401838],"category_scores_gemma":[0.001934132,0.0003380872,0.0008298319,0.0003994407,0.0004984757,0.0005321699,0.0004768492,0.0005843207,0.0006589926],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001962925,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00110154,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.08576024,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.03583323,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9998589,0.00003391812,0.000007198124,0.0000422935,0.0000154294,0.00004242948],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9992461,0.0002928389,0.0001029982,0.00004865924,0.0001433351,0.0001660909],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00009181931,0.00004362042,0.01739308,0.00001988205,0.00003412365,0.0000601051,0.00004012678,0.9786624,0.0003598172,0.0008976115,0.001445746,0.0009515482],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0000711047,0.00003697962,0.008377327,0.00001079766,0.00002881621,0.00001656517,0.00004974092,0.9900357,0.0001923256,0.0005652286,0.0005985073,0.00001694995],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9821806,0.0001333562,0.002083908,0.0006431469,0.00005608134,0.00003839439,0.004004175,0.0001855034,0.01067487],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9962279,0.00004614726,0.0004482497,0.00008082545,0.000009777693,0.00004028495,0.002108265,0.00003879978,0.0009998889],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.08576024,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1705221,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01169594081469943,"score_gpt":0.2085400469591112,"score_spread":0.1968441061444117,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}