{"id":"W4414803045","doi":"10.1016/j.iref.2025.104672","title":"Countries don’t trade, firms do: A firm-level assessment of CETA","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"International Review of Economics & Finance","topic":"Global trade and economics","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"Conselleria de Cultura, Educación y Ciencia, Generalitat Valenciana; Agencia Estatal de Investigación; European Regional Development Fund; Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha","keywords":"Trade barrier; Gravity model of trade; Trade diversion; Commercial policy; Trade agreement; Empirical research; European union","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0006767303,0.0002234538,0.0009607829,0.0002087735,0.00004031829,0.00003980504,0.0008177149,0.0001027436,0.0005405299],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0001191756,0.000272016,0.0003462904,0.0001521852,0.0001278285,0.0003321213,0.0001266652,0.0001474166,0.00006630326],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0002875831,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0001446398,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00009448244,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00003306484,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9974223,0.00001126581,0.001833143,0.0004645454,0.00003436537,0.0002344199],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9979978,0.0001181391,0.001272869,0.0004999074,0.00007415723,0.00003710718],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00001252893,0.0001099218,0.04006135,0.001194673,0.000185404,7.313218e-7,0.0000249421,0.0004438714,0.000001712247,0.9500121,0.005810746,0.00214195],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0008133876,0.00006216332,0.1117255,0.002949764,0.00002829136,0.000005006104,0.00001910187,0.003569121,0.0001106334,0.06257539,0.8177852,0.000356433],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.4410033,0.1815798,0.003188939,0.01960648,0.004885216,0.001204208,0.006441787,0.00003730064,0.342053],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.7590998,0.2357371,0.002414908,0.001744492,0.00005500502,0.00004311821,0.00005646821,0.00001526446,0.0008338114],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.8874367,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9999732,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.05387367254728502,"score_gpt":0.2863890178304595,"score_spread":0.2325153452831745,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}