{"id":"W4414876758","doi":"10.1613/jair.1.19087","title":"Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research","topic":"Big Data and Business Intelligence","field":"Business, Management and Accounting","cited_by":29,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Impact","funders":"Open Philanthropy Project","keywords":"Pessimism; Task (project management); Payment; Applications of artificial intelligence; Boosting (machine learning)","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.01042684,0.0005460095,0.0004313144,0.00335879,0.003949848,0.0113259,0.0007850298,0.00366937,0.03386835],"category_scores_gemma":[0.04223298,0.0005222886,0.0005202817,0.005038085,0.003530376,0.01284093,0.00332171,0.005550412,0.01178658],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.002421818,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.002580615,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0009249962,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001887495,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9924737,0.002656535,0.0004695518,0.0005928889,0.003362227,0.0004451563],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.944409,0.03060895,0.004207597,0.003668405,0.01126712,0.005838934],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"not_applicable","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001926378,0.00005697438,0.01225697,0.0005156755,0.00005946882,0.0004049962,0.00633837,0.0006567076,0.0007357015,0.08535201,0.6897729,0.2036576],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000008405283,0.00002056611,0.002310243,0.0003987017,0.000009528376,0.0002489067,0.002767141,0.0002680084,0.0001480887,0.01495531,0.9788336,0.00003153011],"study_design_candidate":"not_applicable","study_design_consensus":"not_applicable","genre_codex":"commentary","genre_gemma":"other","genre_scores_codex":[0.03144971,0.1156639,0.005940132,0.4582241,0.03641446,0.00006023022,0.0009848586,0.0005052679,0.3507574],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.3819001,0.1424381,0.01062481,0.1459037,0.05883264,0.0001821321,0.00117939,0.0008073681,0.2581316],"genre_candidate":"other","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.03386835,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1133009,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1865262723196952,"score_gpt":0.4414091998803866,"score_spread":0.2548829275606914,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}