{"id":"W4414959330","doi":"10.46254/eu08.20250309","title":"Transshipment with Overconfidence","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"","topic":"Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Wilfrid Laurier University","funders":"","keywords":"Overconfidence effect; Transshipment (information security); Leverage (statistics); Profit (economics); Profit margin; Margin (machine learning)","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001996162,0.0003702057,0.0004849487,0.000437537,0.0007514954,0.001789991,0.0007199586,0.0007950349,0.01175272],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01605882,0.0001890547,0.0003233779,0.0004137009,0.001234545,0.002373409,0.001544139,0.001143665,0.0007721198],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0007488039,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0004423268,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.001290384,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001400642,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9989432,0.000332414,0.00006965291,0.0002485995,0.0001903479,0.0002158546],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9884476,0.004048437,0.004344905,0.00142788,0.0007694091,0.0009616995],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.001857697,0.0009419116,0.300437,0.0006656559,0.0005469329,0.00293663,0.004531535,0.155971,0.04122275,0.3061936,0.003393902,0.1813013],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0004435571,0.002503938,0.2188414,0.0001663122,0.0002436666,0.002358401,0.008864913,0.2650378,0.0147155,0.4721369,0.01443189,0.0002556694],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9599673,0.0001456166,0.02451817,0.0004206494,0.00002720545,0.00002135345,0.00003924985,0.00004226379,0.01481824],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.997419,0.00004161668,0.001362045,0.00003221343,0.00001090178,0.000006515292,0.00001289485,0.000003489986,0.001111274],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01175272,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.03931677,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.09533414838584676,"score_gpt":0.3388788556358512,"score_spread":0.2435447072500044,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}