{"id":"W4414959330","doi":"10.46254/eu08.20250309","title":"Transshipment with Overconfidence","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"","topic":"Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Wilfrid Laurier University","funders":"","keywords":"Overconfidence effect; Transshipment (information security); Leverage (statistics); Profit (economics); Profit margin; Margin (machine learning)","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0002037817,0.00003660948,0.00004232834,0.00003852199,0.0001958932,0.00004895099,0.00007002361,0.00002589944,0.0006118641],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00002781154,0.00003024325,0.00001222204,0.0002372089,0.00007374502,0.0001492375,0.000003112854,0.0000252359,0.00002382966],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00008623771,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0001510859,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.004830124,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.1109325,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9995277,0.00003515122,0.00006568248,0.00009680577,0.0001681281,0.0001065586],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9997742,0.00006336044,0.00001517752,0.00006129035,0.0000600071,0.00002599129],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00002286429,0.0000311061,0.01188878,0.00001448474,0.00001428917,0.000001275035,0.04719985,0.00002399864,0.0007088464,0.9222434,0.002955026,0.01489609],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.001370284,0.0001250382,0.1262528,0.0002487345,0.00008207584,6.874459e-7,0.2389308,0.0005555181,0.006672405,0.024532,0.6006586,0.0005710819],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"other","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.2115371,0.0000835075,0.0238406,0.01940938,0.0001858202,0.0003566636,0.000001800288,0.0001630626,0.7444221],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9729163,0.00008348201,0.0008160958,0.0005530872,0.00003927809,0.00001706523,0.000002651615,0.000002071394,0.02556997],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.8977114,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9052907,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.09533414838584676,"score_gpt":0.3388788556358512,"score_spread":0.2435447072500044,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}