{"id":"W4414981511","doi":"10.3390/stats8040092","title":"Predictions of War Duration","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Stats","topic":"Defense, Military, and Policy Studies","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Carleton University","funders":"","keywords":"Poisson distribution; Duration (music); Measure (data warehouse); Work (physics); Probability distribution; Investment (military)","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.003215504,0.0005118874,0.0004187536,0.001609812,0.0004441538,0.002113713,0.001029176,0.001304815,0.01362697],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01935178,0.0004209663,0.0008200817,0.0007682149,0.001196048,0.002102874,0.001193633,0.001412821,0.001904512],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001172654,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0004514393,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00512093,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.003339749,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9994886,0.0001332704,0.00001842078,0.0001635547,0.00004948445,0.000146595],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9892225,0.007306712,0.001235005,0.0004979801,0.0005466572,0.001191018],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0006284974,0.0001142549,0.2431351,0.0001903651,0.0001976001,0.0005176129,0.001248064,0.5058861,0.0009144139,0.1928193,0.01783372,0.03651503],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000101051,0.0001833674,0.1333148,0.000140932,0.00007060244,0.0004587873,0.001195838,0.5374559,0.0003547889,0.3180497,0.008593444,0.00008081212],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.904255,0.001978531,0.04176349,0.006558217,0.000220327,0.00008844971,0.003922106,0.0001810864,0.04103284],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9961094,0.0002938086,0.000562722,0.0001706644,0.00006654098,0.00002383987,0.0006913778,0.00001776849,0.002063952],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01362697,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.04558671,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03141607107390611,"score_gpt":0.2566997352297068,"score_spread":0.2252836641558007,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}