{"id":"W4414981511","doi":"10.3390/stats8040092","title":"Predictions of War Duration","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Stats","topic":"Defense, Military, and Policy Studies","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Carleton University","funders":"","keywords":"Poisson distribution; Duration (music); Measure (data warehouse); Work (physics); Probability distribution; Investment (military)","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.00009312837,0.00004273971,0.0001261492,0.0001190673,0.00005955745,0.000003019655,0.00004491186,0.00002398383,0.0000594059],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00008014344,0.00004891054,0.00004009028,0.0001450572,0.00003774367,0.00005104109,0.00001718398,0.00003181969,0.00009087934],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00001999132,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.000009993287,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00031979,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0001176749,"domain_scores_codex":[0.999541,0.000003849626,0.0002585413,0.0001019937,0.00001005687,0.00008457353],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9997558,0.00002781601,0.00006143714,0.0001220283,0.00002024584,0.00001266488],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00001621862,0.0000766509,0.09227696,0.00008517758,0.000139642,4.993638e-7,0.002837816,0.0001018091,0.00001938539,0.7977577,0.1053642,0.001323932],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000470152,0.00007391553,0.3727708,0.00002256408,0.00001261481,4.055029e-7,0.0005239849,0.0008189837,0.0001983294,0.2755188,0.3494524,0.0001370289],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"other","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.2426319,0.009979329,0.006829343,0.002905936,0.001408898,0.0002198908,0.0009143245,0.00005789373,0.7350525],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9935572,0.0005816011,0.0001782874,0.0001484664,0.00003871938,0.000009604847,0.000009392275,0.000003193062,0.005473511],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.7509253,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1994514,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03141607107390611,"score_gpt":0.2566997352297068,"score_spread":0.2252836641558007,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}