{"id":"W4415092550","doi":"10.1016/s0140-6736(25)01330-3","title":"Global age-sex-specific all-cause mortality and life expectancy estimates for 204 countries and territories and 660 subnational locations, 1950–2023: a demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"The Lancet","topic":"Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":103,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"Japan Science and Technology Agency; Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council; National Science and Technology Council; Italfarmaco; H. Lundbeck A/S; National Institute on Aging; Suicide Prevention Australia; Casen Recordati; Templeton World Charity Foundation; Medical Research Council; Servier; Ministry of Education- New Zealand; University of the Philippines; Taipei Medical University; National Institutes of Health; Tehran University of Medical Sciences and Health Services; Santen; Novo Nordisk; Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico; Ministero della Salute; Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology; British Heart Foundation; National Institute for Health and Care Research; National Taiwan Normal University; AstraZeneca; European Commission; University of Alberta; Precursory Research for Embryonic Science and Technology; World Health Organization; British Pharmacological Society; Sociedad Madrileña de Nefrología; Esteve Pharmaceuticals; National Natural Science Foundation of China; Fresenius Medical Care North America; State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease; Seres Therapeutics; Amarin Corporation; Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades; Norwegian Institute of Public Health; International Association for Suicide Prevention; Ministry of Health, New Zealand; Wellcome Trust; Heart Research UK; Ministerul Cercetării, Inovării şi Digitalizării; Moderna; American Heart Association; Universidade da Beira Interior; Society of Cardiovascular Anesthesiologists; Biogen; King Saud University; Indian Council of Medical Research; Department of Health and Social Care; Teva Pharmaceutical Industries; Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; Pfizer; International Union of Basic and Clinical Pharmacology; Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya; U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs; Daiichi Sankyo Europe; Yale University; Swedish Orphan Biovitrum; Astellas Pharma; Alberta Health Services; Eli Lilly and Company; National Science Foundation; National Research, Development and Innovation Office; National Health and Medical Research Council; Neuraxpharm; European Society of Cardiology; Horizon Pharmaceuticals; Amgen; GAVI Alliance; Marga und Walter Boll-Stiftung; Sanofi; Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria","keywords":"Life expectancy; Burden of disease; Demographic analysis; Disease burden; Disease; Developed country; Disability-adjusted life year; Demographic change","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001308848,0.0001732116,0.0004140761,0.00008428728,0.0009171534,0.0003172548,0.000384569,0.00004592032,0.000006030723],"category_scores_gemma":[0.000278714,0.0001232526,0.0001072484,0.0009610769,0.001067114,0.0001481445,0.0001161622,0.00004813553,1.676999e-7],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00004992899,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00009262958,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.005291526,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.03383926,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9984252,0.0001645319,0.0003287612,0.0003648528,0.0004194511,0.0002972194],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9985402,0.000616146,0.0001541394,0.000416354,0.0001878937,0.00008530737],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000148557,0.00006857893,0.9033929,0.00007925261,0.002434774,9.78736e-7,0.001562764,0.0001052727,1.794357e-7,0.08966219,0.002313916,0.0002306827],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0007111693,0.0000315731,0.9481816,0.00001605208,0.002054551,7.109718e-8,0.008481338,0.0006840988,2.724644e-7,0.03191864,0.007795711,0.0001249171],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9684298,0.01486751,0.002460765,0.008947501,0.0003333248,0.002409408,0.002212405,0.00005875783,0.000280532],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9959465,0.002740383,0.0002420381,0.0001987833,0.0003497189,0.000420065,0.00004820767,0.000004892308,0.00004937405],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.05774355,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9837906,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.05319451141714938,"score_gpt":0.3647931629448835,"score_spread":0.3115986515277341,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). 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