{"id":"W4415092550","doi":"10.1016/s0140-6736(25)01330-3","title":"Global age-sex-specific all-cause mortality and life expectancy estimates for 204 countries and territories and 660 subnational locations, 1950–2023: a demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"The Lancet","topic":"Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":103,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"Japan Science and Technology Agency; Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council; National Science and Technology Council; Italfarmaco; H. Lundbeck A/S; National Institute on Aging; Suicide Prevention Australia; Casen Recordati; Templeton World Charity Foundation; Medical Research Council; Servier; Ministry of Education- New Zealand; University of the Philippines; Taipei Medical University; National Institutes of Health; Tehran University of Medical Sciences and Health Services; Santen; Novo Nordisk; Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico; Ministero della Salute; Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology; British Heart Foundation; National Institute for Health and Care Research; National Taiwan Normal University; AstraZeneca; European Commission; University of Alberta; Precursory Research for Embryonic Science and Technology; World Health Organization; British Pharmacological Society; Sociedad Madrileña de Nefrología; Esteve Pharmaceuticals; National Natural Science Foundation of China; Fresenius Medical Care North America; State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease; Seres Therapeutics; Amarin Corporation; Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades; Norwegian Institute of Public Health; International Association for Suicide Prevention; Ministry of Health, New Zealand; Wellcome Trust; Heart Research UK; Ministerul Cercetării, Inovării şi Digitalizării; Moderna; American Heart Association; Universidade da Beira Interior; Society of Cardiovascular Anesthesiologists; Biogen; King Saud University; Indian Council of Medical Research; Department of Health and Social Care; Teva Pharmaceutical Industries; Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; Pfizer; International Union of Basic and Clinical Pharmacology; Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya; U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs; Daiichi Sankyo Europe; Yale University; Swedish Orphan Biovitrum; Astellas Pharma; Alberta Health Services; Eli Lilly and Company; National Science Foundation; National Research, Development and Innovation Office; National Health and Medical Research Council; Neuraxpharm; European Society of Cardiology; Horizon Pharmaceuticals; Amgen; GAVI Alliance; Marga und Walter Boll-Stiftung; Sanofi; Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria","keywords":"Life expectancy; Burden of disease; Demographic analysis; Disease burden; Disease; Developed country; Disability-adjusted life year; Demographic change","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.003724362,0.0006292633,0.0005605198,0.003447478,0.0002263707,0.0006419567,0.0006281207,0.0002701233,0.002214096],"category_scores_gemma":[0.005017642,0.0002571866,0.001792203,0.005841483,0.0002531687,0.0008438331,0.001320583,0.0006142415,0.001142759],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0009797418,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0016874,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.05143102,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.04451969,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9989733,0.000400362,0.0001171514,0.0001698682,0.0002483625,0.00009092397],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9983847,0.0003118995,0.0005009353,0.0002412829,0.000474407,0.00008675058],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001012344,0.0000531523,0.9198779,0.0003881808,0.0009218974,0.0001054683,0.0003514655,0.01821639,0.0004400356,0.00124356,0.01986673,0.03843394],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00003322434,0.0001341976,0.9508342,0.0003450965,0.0003962379,0.0002879763,0.0007150241,0.01821636,0.0005402502,0.001181375,0.02725071,0.00006544615],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.5736471,0.004797351,0.05430036,0.001393668,0.000228721,0.0004900728,0.3560575,0.000651676,0.008433508],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.7112568,0.003353103,0.04226989,0.0002220964,0.000151711,0.0007214393,0.240112,0.0001067788,0.001806269],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.05143102,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1022633,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.05319451141714938,"score_gpt":0.3647931629448835,"score_spread":0.3115986515277341,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). 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