{"id":"W4415232861","doi":"10.14796/jwmm.c564","title":"Stochastic Modeling of Extreme Dry Spells in Southeast Iran: Patterns, Trends, and Return Periods","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of Water Management Modeling","topic":"Hydrology and Drought Analysis","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Return period; Generalized Pareto distribution; Extreme value theory; Generalized extreme value distribution; Precipitation; Quantile; Estimator; Stochastic modelling","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":true,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.000716718,0.0001381473,0.0003122834,0.0004225563,0.00004719863,0.00002495801,0.0002155774,0.00005913029,0.000396445],"category_scores_gemma":[0.000004136399,0.0001015247,0.0001089964,0.0001873188,0.00004052237,0.0002289309,0.0002217245,0.0001913775,0.00001439166],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00005694018,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.000002774279,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00008182671,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00007571121,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9986096,0.00005935754,0.0006403312,0.000201188,0.0002490018,0.000240491],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9996611,0.000009126024,0.0001098133,0.0001600805,0.00001145265,0.0000483565],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00007746567,0.00005360906,0.01451087,0.00003567295,0.0000854692,0.0000277842,0.001002346,0.9806284,0.0004539022,0.00002178658,0.000009940494,0.003092694],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0005993101,0.00002715061,0.0004656558,0.0001373038,0.0001612487,0.000003456616,0.0008936882,0.9957173,0.00005813488,0.001823866,0.00001421247,0.00009867216],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.7265421,0.0001248357,0.2696708,0.0003987943,0.00006059976,0.00004460214,8.258017e-7,0.000002859675,0.00315467],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9977147,0.00006748924,0.001286454,0.0000652106,0.00002356128,6.812882e-7,0.000001382674,0.000007752004,0.0008327836],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.2711726,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.4340795,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01916154126361082,"score_gpt":0.2297372455476558,"score_spread":0.210575704284045,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}