{"id":"W4415315791","doi":"10.1016/j.iref.2025.104701","title":"Navigating global financial turbulence: The evergrande collapse and its contagion effect","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"International Review of Economics & Finance","topic":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":2,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Social connectedness; Volatility (finance); Financial contagion; Stylized fact; Vector autoregression; Financial crisis; Pairwise comparison; Financial market; Stock (firearms)","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.00128035,0.0001693039,0.0005244667,0.00002564677,0.00009381593,0.00004265303,0.0004452013,0.00007586321,0.00006663307],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0008383368,0.0001583936,0.0001651595,0.0001646541,0.00007632338,0.0001681011,0.000150208,0.0001848232,0.00001457128],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001768759,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00006210135,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0001063121,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00005337899,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9985116,0.0000316409,0.0008825855,0.0003783364,0.00002884154,0.0001670331],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9987994,0.000206513,0.0006086978,0.0002669713,0.00009218706,0.00002619526],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00007321549,0.00004034244,0.1106818,0.001198832,0.00007509192,0.000001194406,0.00002373782,0.00003814073,0.000001520908,0.8591201,0.0009821522,0.02776383],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.002409964,0.0001812636,0.2394491,0.01057221,0.00006147807,0.00002165999,0.000008329439,0.1895347,0.00008123655,0.2405377,0.3164134,0.0007288432],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8771177,0.09672974,0.0003530214,0.005278327,0.001345509,0.0006238745,0.000572436,0.00001084765,0.01796852],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9111342,0.08708091,0.0001155933,0.001313419,0.00005191536,0.00005289168,0.00002029852,0.000006077069,0.0002247375],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.6185824,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.6459104,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.009486337610442677,"score_gpt":0.2703269600657513,"score_spread":0.2608406224553086,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}