{"id":"W4415358567","doi":"10.5194/cp-21-1755-2025","title":"Using reduced-complexity volcanic aerosol and climate models to produce large ensemble simulations of Holocene temperature","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Climate of the past","topic":"Geology and Paleoclimatology Research","field":"Earth and Planetary Sciences","cited_by":2,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Saskatchewan","funders":"H2020 European Research Council; University of Exeter; European Space Agency; National Science Foundation","keywords":"Climate model; Volcano; Aerosol; Forcing (mathematics); Northern Hemisphere; Climate change; Sulfate aerosol; Holocene; Climate state","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0004450224,0.0001193673,0.0002725161,0.0001009232,0.0003990996,0.00001551327,0.0002788843,0.0001124828,0.00009355408],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0000696352,0.00008651936,0.00005318382,0.000416049,0.0002645278,0.00009848421,0.0001298421,0.0001960118,0.000009281697],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.000001640011,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00005607578,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00007792156,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001357281,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9987519,0.0001690942,0.0002718784,0.0002635909,0.0001230284,0.0004204631],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9992083,0.0001518487,0.00009960052,0.0003679334,0.0001118726,0.00006041525],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00009071281,0.00003404861,0.9750094,0.0001761033,0.00002135616,0.000001014889,0.0002057718,0.01982885,0.00385959,0.0006868848,0.00005482508,0.00003145148],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0005555155,0.00009246802,0.9082291,0.0002180315,0.00007654906,0.00002883072,0.000325738,0.0759462,0.01137463,0.002944203,0.00001931225,0.0001894501],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.995919,0.0003262245,0.00002364885,0.000997246,0.0001872645,0.000324627,0.0003875195,0.00001300009,0.001821439],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9990104,0.0000590266,0.0006901039,0.0001234517,0.00001803053,0.000001048198,0.00003205867,0.000002894569,0.00006302857],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.06678033,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.3528157,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.05574813619105207,"score_gpt":0.2991610419730582,"score_spread":0.2434129057820061,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}