{"id":"W4415494267","doi":"10.3390/jrfm18110596","title":"Economic Policy Uncertainty, Geopolitical Risk, and the U.S.–China Relations: A Risk Transmission Perspective","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of risk and financial management","topic":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Geopolitics; China; Spillover effect; Granger causality; Perspective (graphical); Volatility (finance); Systemic risk; Vector autoregression; Causality (physics)","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":true,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0009090586,0.0002316869,0.0002864529,0.00177007,0.0004546987,0.00186197,0.0002419007,0.00033675,0.00164273],"category_scores_gemma":[0.003528061,0.0001012288,0.0002531839,0.002679846,0.0007326541,0.001294817,0.001145952,0.0006299182,0.0001036495],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001077988,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0007627797,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.02519376,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01854769,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9996083,0.000116611,0.00002642406,0.00005926154,0.00008350079,0.0001058547],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9978579,0.0006145694,0.001057385,0.0001180481,0.0001811335,0.0001709986],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00007514375,0.00006405827,0.9354237,0.00003159839,0.0001703222,0.0002886249,0.001268036,0.01216504,0.000316057,0.02749679,0.001190921,0.02150969],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00001648848,0.0001131976,0.9126446,0.00008814294,0.0001159998,0.0001238101,0.004327158,0.05215761,0.000862152,0.02291592,0.006578878,0.00005603989],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9911097,0.0005130819,0.001609595,0.0009643981,0.00001105552,0.00001163372,0.0003315035,0.000012881,0.005436045],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9994363,0.0001533898,0.0001010774,0.00002638021,0.0000078314,0.000002911995,0.000102839,0.000001260882,0.0001678261],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.02519376,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.05009419,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.004690260020077839,"score_gpt":0.2217781050279817,"score_spread":0.2170878450079039,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}