{"id":"W4415672639","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.5631472","title":"Geopolitical Risk and the Collapse of the Option to Wait *","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Capital Investment and Risk Analysis","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Université du Québec en Outaouais","funders":"","keywords":"Geopolitics; Investment (military); Value (mathematics); Political risk; Politics; Jump diffusion; Option value","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001354669,0.000194101,0.0005548027,0.0007722651,0.001194809,0.003378778,0.000742798,0.001748722,0.01225318],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01044597,0.0002867778,0.0005119963,0.001072499,0.002388681,0.003067468,0.001459035,0.002892243,0.0006872513],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001155265,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0008506569,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.004442123,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.003481847,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9996593,0.00008806241,0.00001734432,0.00006205556,0.00004791849,0.0001252798],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9953279,0.002047877,0.001360775,0.0003476819,0.0002506151,0.0006650847],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0002750829,0.00005007892,0.009693738,0.00004050166,0.00004601214,0.0004777259,0.0004073495,0.01854516,0.0005862052,0.9512942,0.005249939,0.01333382],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00002451381,0.00004424681,0.005325577,0.00002081276,0.00002928482,0.0002129199,0.000356243,0.06114506,0.0003278228,0.9290063,0.003476561,0.00003063078],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8879312,0.002155735,0.03905465,0.01370039,0.0002068423,0.00002034599,0.0005438034,0.0002059907,0.05618098],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9946718,0.0003818581,0.0003611493,0.0000911678,0.00005394893,0.000004717625,0.00004292803,0.00002152552,0.004370843],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01225318,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.04099101,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.009274794206541771,"score_gpt":0.2145613614659606,"score_spread":0.2052865672594189,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}