{"id":"W4415829255","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100826","title":"Conditional attribution of cold extremes in Canada: The role of atmospheric circulation in a changing climate","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Weather and Climate Extremes","topic":"Climate variability and models","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":1,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Environment and Climate Change Canada","funders":"","keywords":"Climate change; Atmospheric circulation; Attribution; General Circulation Model; Climate extremes; Climate model; North Atlantic oscillation; Circulation (fluid dynamics)","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0004433179,0.00009166724,0.0001754922,0.00002807206,0.00006730124,0.00000647614,0.00008514272,0.00003928541,0.0002373621],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00001308765,0.00007476467,0.00002880833,0.000427713,0.00009562528,0.00009578788,0.0001154627,0.00006062056,0.000001282881],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.000237445,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00005079942,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":true,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.1306607,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.3786889,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9990314,0.00006145058,0.0003095583,0.0001792456,0.0001526699,0.0002656259],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9996607,0.00009473022,0.00008765546,0.000129682,0.000009050824,0.00001822367],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00002468749,0.00005602777,0.9652182,0.00004160237,0.000005013887,6.796833e-7,0.0004505206,0.004767184,0.01234997,0.01557456,0.000004595418,0.001506876],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0004063047,0.00001053094,0.9417229,0.00009437646,0.00001424728,8.924839e-7,0.00165892,0.05152791,0.001239062,0.002728828,0.0005055473,0.00009043849],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9957086,0.0004302134,0.0001091883,0.0001249769,0.00003031122,0.000210674,0.00005956425,0.000005144279,0.003321277],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9995961,0.0002308254,0.00005633335,0.00005214222,0.000003635598,0.00002328744,0.0000140931,0.000004353199,0.0000192909],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.2480282,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.8751283,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.007800315185920219,"score_gpt":0.2047862112553921,"score_spread":0.1969858960694719,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}