{"id":"W4415947121","doi":"","title":"Epidemic \"momentum\" and a conservation law for infectious disease dynamics","year":2025,"lang":"","type":"article","venue":"ArXiv.org","topic":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","field":"Mathematics","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"McMaster University","funders":"","keywords":"Population; Basic reproduction number; Outbreak; Infectious disease (medical specialty); Epidemic model; Disease; Momentum (technical analysis)","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001272073,0.0004826806,0.0003847365,0.001037978,0.0008026054,0.00210329,0.0007080228,0.001041058,0.002440251],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00590519,0.0002411925,0.0005732171,0.0005701488,0.004035959,0.006011562,0.00145554,0.002226192,0.0002443043],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00145094,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0005632347,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.001101208,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.000488584,"domain_scores_codex":[0.99967,0.0001095936,0.00001426331,0.00005721557,0.0001095844,0.00003919575],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9984044,0.0009352264,0.0002397813,0.0001668632,0.0001486133,0.0001049479],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000004782192,0.000004391007,0.0002272409,0.00001230896,0.000002955947,0.00002226962,0.00006129564,0.003757001,0.0002720898,0.9920238,0.0005364788,0.003075373],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000005184803,0.00001218855,0.0004062911,0.00001105093,0.000003502807,0.00007539323,0.00003260493,0.03382095,0.0001186047,0.9623256,0.003181051,0.000007608262],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.1340725,0.004955283,0.778053,0.01923206,0.0007424257,0.00003871405,0.000216279,0.0002398323,0.06244979],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9456764,0.002759811,0.04144639,0.0007661256,0.001022842,0.00004592194,0.00007715749,0.00010558,0.008099813],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.002440251,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.01052737,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1569995028519382,"score_gpt":0.4030572863768169,"score_spread":0.2460577835248788,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}