{"id":"W4415994459","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.5705395","title":"Unpacking the Countercyclicality of Post-Secondary Enrollment in the United States","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Intergenerational and Educational Inequality Studies","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":1,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"University of Saskatchewan; York University","funders":"","keywords":"Matriculation; Human capital; Unemployment; Higher education; Unpacking; Population; Persistence (discontinuity); Current Population Survey","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001326226,0.0001000009,0.0003461412,0.000930442,0.0006447841,0.001474788,0.0004030569,0.0005567117,0.004518628],"category_scores_gemma":[0.005754558,0.0001481711,0.0002512376,0.001829681,0.0006719492,0.0006043433,0.001428011,0.0007268708,0.0003196394],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0006311345,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0006599287,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0347189,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.06695954,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9992577,0.0002411365,0.00005353253,0.0001799722,0.00009310871,0.0001745005],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9925858,0.003372812,0.002225503,0.0006000281,0.0005695714,0.0006462082],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000190822,0.00008723148,0.9741536,0.0000224262,0.0001112445,0.00008036187,0.001090328,0.0008020847,0.000495947,0.007335655,0.002618117,0.01301222],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000006287405,0.00003420925,0.9939758,0.0000146252,0.0000311939,0.00001765078,0.0008917094,0.001061728,0.0001573347,0.001658408,0.002142634,0.000008308331],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9916503,0.0004643994,0.0002509051,0.001699887,0.00003451282,0.000004992732,0.0009226379,0.0000144368,0.004957889],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9991041,0.00008189432,0.00002915761,0.00007751713,0.00002546737,0.000002026355,0.0002349385,0.000003659484,0.0004412672],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.0347189,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.06903362,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03485002335695539,"score_gpt":0.3609871725187762,"score_spread":0.3261371491618208,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}