{"id":"W4416123444","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7941156/v1","title":"Geopolitics and Transport Modes Effects of the Gravity Model","year":2025,"lang":"","type":"preprint","venue":"Research Square","topic":"Economic and Technological Innovation","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Polytechnique Montréal; HEC Montréal; Center for Interuniversity Research and Analysis on Organizations","funders":"Transport Canada","keywords":"Geopolitics; Resilience (materials science); Gravity model of trade; Vulnerability (computing); Globalization; Bilateral trade; Gravity equation","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002031731,0.0005523886,0.001172459,0.00151263,0.0007102699,0.003069703,0.0009581489,0.00135337,0.0191469],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01108006,0.0003505942,0.001402777,0.001737956,0.001673095,0.002556125,0.001461019,0.001551898,0.0009530403],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001130878,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001776807,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0410951,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01933534,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9992829,0.0003573337,0.00001975519,0.0000922588,0.00005785236,0.0001898772],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.989638,0.00685389,0.001004526,0.0008305289,0.0006733543,0.0009996855],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.001342786,0.000391641,0.08234666,0.0002115062,0.0005988175,0.0008608383,0.0006920663,0.2761765,0.002023119,0.5954807,0.02057636,0.01929901],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0004437428,0.0002688462,0.05306274,0.00009224589,0.0008074371,0.0001666548,0.001386611,0.615684,0.0008642129,0.3219156,0.005149687,0.0001582608],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9393014,0.001035775,0.01957846,0.007803664,0.0003226957,0.00005556075,0.001070276,0.0005530834,0.03027909],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.994382,0.00033067,0.0003598686,0.00007517184,0.00008189334,0.000007458489,0.00009098578,0.00004135715,0.004630746],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.0410951,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.08171183,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.08525380238202929,"score_gpt":0.3314253852867027,"score_spread":0.2461715829046734,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}