{"id":"W4416132379","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8088413/v1","title":"Cumulative Exposure to Climate Shocks, Local Vulnerabilities and Herder-Farmer Conflicts in Africa","year":2025,"lang":"","type":"preprint","venue":"Research Square","topic":"Transboundary Water Resource Management","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Université de Montréal","funders":"","keywords":"Climate change; Climate extremes; Scale (ratio); Vulnerability (computing); Baseline (sea); Ethnic group","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0004616716,0.0001355338,0.0001852365,0.0005588396,0.0006998879,0.0009192562,0.0002459883,0.0005263504,0.002995321],"category_scores_gemma":[0.003275978,0.0001744058,0.0001317579,0.001198576,0.0005266959,0.0009408484,0.001035106,0.0004910324,0.0001330622],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0008004718,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0004946287,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.03087543,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.04167921,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9998164,0.00004440331,0.00000850082,0.00003139399,0.00001327729,0.00008614352],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9986572,0.0005163542,0.0004814629,0.00005019552,0.0000734028,0.0002213189],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001875035,0.0001124083,0.9829107,0.00003557599,0.00008444942,0.0004823308,0.002912286,0.002058461,0.0005598885,0.00114378,0.0003277868,0.009184899],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00000772052,0.0001134773,0.9889309,0.00002706351,0.00003971154,0.0001648643,0.007637449,0.001224835,0.0001339053,0.001189976,0.0005203514,0.00000977433],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9994681,0.00008435794,0.00002633708,0.00009150281,0.000001150638,0.000001296475,0.00004505153,4.652622e-7,0.0002816352],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9997547,0.0001118736,0.00001044043,0.00000532511,0.000001655109,0.000001343246,0.00001708865,2.725974e-7,0.00009720904],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.03087543,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.06139147,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.08970640228057261,"score_gpt":0.4052019271551487,"score_spread":0.3154955248745761,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}