{"id":"W4416136634","doi":"10.1109/pesgm52009.2025.11225003","title":"Online Dynamic Ensemble Framework for Improving Bulk System Operational Load Forecasting","year":2025,"lang":"","type":"article","venue":"","topic":"Energy Load and Power Forecasting","field":"Engineering","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Independent Electricity System Operator","funders":"","keywords":"Baseline (sea); Probabilistic forecasting; Ensemble forecasting; Load profile; Electric power system; Power (physics); Time series","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.000625674,0.0006806438,0.0006934963,0.0002798673,0.0007236979,0.0004084371,0.0004427072,0.0006121334,0.0001040817],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0007363034,0.0007253098,0.0003483617,0.0006660454,0.00005103381,0.0003462423,0.0002079096,0.0007010912,0.00001915161],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001168871,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0005686397,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0001979125,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0003804993,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9964328,0.00004270552,0.001253332,0.0007845414,0.0003769988,0.00110967],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9975538,0.001128391,0.0001729537,0.0005199991,0.0004362222,0.0001886089],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00009231752,0.0001625812,0.0001279738,0.006946139,0.0004659343,0.00001991613,0.0005517192,0.4717079,0.004916868,0.3734543,0.0003173196,0.141237],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0008583149,0.0001009392,0.00002842605,0.003309357,0.0001815774,0.00003184298,0.0007945226,0.9871264,0.002468047,0.001530075,0.002895903,0.000674649],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.03103666,0.003196642,0.937354,0.0003030251,0.006003357,0.0007639097,0.0001931698,0.000646106,0.02050309],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.7803243,0.00002568489,0.2133965,0.0001787293,0.0006735046,0.00009665816,0.0001276292,0.0001079595,0.00506911],"genre_candidate":"methods","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.7492876,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9995198,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01483917863049859,"score_gpt":0.2465219255782535,"score_spread":0.2316827469477549,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}