{"id":"W4416254129","doi":"10.1016/j.frl.2025.108942","title":"America first, markets last? Stock market effects of 2025 U.S. tariffs in middle-income countries","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Finance research letters","topic":"Economic and Technological Innovation","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":2,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Brock University","funders":"","keywords":"Tariff; Equity (law); Stock (firearms); Protectionism; Balance of trade; Stock market; Per capita","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001269096,0.000164487,0.0005399073,0.001125927,0.0001231322,0.00005065324,0.0005465069,0.000175448,0.0002267168],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0008868011,0.0001888332,0.0000805639,0.001635527,0.0004415106,0.0002196388,0.000228997,0.0005599604,0.0001734549],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.000356171,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00004740326,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0003124621,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00005805504,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9979947,0.0000559669,0.0007404572,0.0005232005,0.00007874812,0.0006069597],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9984167,0.0007542747,0.0002411002,0.0004947362,0.00006484208,0.00002830696],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0002156601,0.0002051777,0.6006262,0.001563806,0.00008425093,0.00004888709,0.0001186746,0.00007125013,0.0000991256,0.3234753,0.06965701,0.003834611],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0009962139,0.0001053238,0.7494876,0.0006453596,0.000001989042,5.111028e-7,0.00001732805,0.001279697,0.0006106367,0.02936024,0.2172397,0.0002553726],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9643578,0.002247829,0.001369981,0.013347,0.0003020788,0.0006328366,0.00005624209,0.00004269658,0.01764357],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9940915,0.001359062,0.0008589279,0.0007767226,0.00002976462,0.0002149321,0.000007633649,0.00001479022,0.002646654],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.2941151,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.7700393,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03251353134856075,"score_gpt":0.2697667551937996,"score_spread":0.2372532238452389,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}