{"id":"W4416365752","doi":"10.1287/mnsc.2022.03251","title":"Firms’ Stock Prices, Stock Returns, and Remaining Lifetime Earnings","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Management Science","topic":"Auditing, Earnings Management, Governance","field":"Business, Management and Accounting","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Calgary","funders":"","keywords":"Earnings; Stock (firearms); Stock price; Earnings growth; Public information; Growth stock; Stock trading","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow","scholarly_communication"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002161331,0.0003755615,0.000318425,0.001035309,0.001219612,0.00139122,0.001323493,0.00005992808,0.0001766356],"category_scores_gemma":[0.002672109,0.0003806486,0.00006737142,0.003437227,0.0005502036,0.002412357,0.002965404,0.0003232786,0.0002820786],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001506833,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00003372222,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0002115264,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00002890284,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9962821,0.00001435453,0.0004710492,0.001250722,0.001073288,0.000908474],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9947819,0.00005932612,0.004263916,0.0007026301,0.0001502362,0.00004196679],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00006577391,0.0001610072,0.324631,0.001648339,0.000149785,0.0001169263,0.0004520785,0.0006467031,0.0005385834,0.2489226,0.0508177,0.3718495],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0006980189,0.00001821668,0.3890784,0.0004390276,0.0001085944,0.000001370139,0.0005707153,0.00672,0.00002779631,0.001602443,0.6002125,0.0005229622],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"other","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.4235768,0.0003135561,0.1210714,0.004833107,0.001131886,0.001589776,0.000001766538,0.0008397564,0.446642],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9619355,0.00007106685,0.002958949,0.004994961,0.0002849184,0.00007269115,0.000006131474,0.00003563964,0.02964012],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.5493948,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9998645,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.008126228735101224,"score_gpt":0.2263036918617424,"score_spread":0.2181774631266412,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}