{"id":"W4416368584","doi":"10.1126/sciadv.adw8268","title":"Forecast attribution reveals enhanced heat mortality from climate change in British Columbia heatwave","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Science Advances","topic":"Climate Change and Health Impacts","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":2,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Ottawa; Health Canada","funders":"University of Bristol","keywords":"Attribution; Climate change; Death toll; Human health; Extreme weather; Climate model; Toll","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0008267715,0.0002531511,0.0002521499,0.0005067125,0.0004876827,0.00124466,0.000583122,0.0005548492,0.00402845],"category_scores_gemma":[0.004874055,0.0001282988,0.0003082364,0.0006750826,0.0004727359,0.0003383619,0.0005088462,0.0007098625,0.0002471398],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.003766149,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001939518,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":true,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.772329,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.730016,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9997239,0.00008074542,0.00001236408,0.00006422452,0.00005239384,0.00006631284],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.998431,0.000718986,0.0001390658,0.0001858017,0.0003919235,0.0001331741],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.001076319,0.0001568946,0.4859378,0.00006929554,0.0002865499,0.0004318971,0.0002990473,0.4796618,0.001505985,0.005267485,0.01091799,0.01438888],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001171469,0.00005316312,0.3377303,0.00002275432,0.00007196944,0.00004985604,0.0005027871,0.6556731,0.0009729444,0.002231151,0.002507441,0.00006756107],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.99361,0.00004820696,0.0004436912,0.0004456002,0.00002189714,0.000008556091,0.002012167,0.00009961886,0.00331026],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9979998,0.00002502861,0.0001665338,0.00003414409,0.000003832358,0.000002004246,0.001138006,0.000008740997,0.000621851],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.227671,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.4580236,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.05158225339563031,"score_gpt":0.352796415730102,"score_spread":0.3012141623344716,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}