{"id":"W4416453263","doi":"10.1101/2025.11.19.25340533","title":"Prognostic performance across Alzheimer’s biomarkers, multi-modal physiological measures, and clinical history in asymptomatic individuals","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"medRxiv","topic":"Dementia and Cognitive Impairment Research","field":"Medicine","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"Canadian Institutes of Health Research; National Institutes of Health; Genentech; IXICO; H. Lundbeck A/S; Servier; Eisai; Northern California Institute for Research and Education; Pfizer; Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation; Biogen; Eli Lilly and Company; Bristol-Myers Squibb; BioClinica; Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative; Meso Scale Diagnostics; Alzheimer's Association; Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation; Foundation for the National Institutes of Health","keywords":"Asymptomatic; Disease; Natural history; Clinical history; Natural history study; Medical history","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.007238131,0.0004858688,0.0007472094,0.001181808,0.0004844285,0.001049385,0.0005897771,0.0006957631,0.001101255],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01221564,0.0002111194,0.000675266,0.0008008784,0.0005551616,0.001010749,0.0009448747,0.0005807652,0.0002294739],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0002816232,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.000266667,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.001131432,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00140884,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9971853,0.00155173,0.000295913,0.0005266425,0.0002775204,0.0001629255],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9911103,0.00352697,0.00281527,0.001232706,0.0006656725,0.000649114],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.001791654,0.0000818546,0.9934151,0.00002121029,0.0002701505,0.00004836317,0.00005366507,0.0002273839,0.0003862102,0.00004238623,0.0001378346,0.003524095],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00009164643,0.001266372,0.9948223,0.0000189593,0.0002397312,0.0003010831,0.0001165978,0.001918246,0.0005278628,0.000448296,0.0002303229,0.00001871905],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9982951,0.0004044819,0.0004318746,0.00007177322,0.00001359271,0.00001501799,0.0004436174,0.0000057813,0.0003187483],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.999252,0.0000413117,0.0002323037,0.00002628843,0.00002014276,0.00001227185,0.0003510178,0.000001476054,0.00006317041],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.007238131,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.03827935,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1329387162375169,"score_gpt":0.4063969919266177,"score_spread":0.2734582756891008,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}