{"id":"W4416528877","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100835","title":"Characterizing cold surge induced storm surge in the northern East China Sea: A 60-year hindcast reveals paradoxical trends in surge heights and return levels","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Weather and Climate Extremes","topic":"Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research","field":"Earth and Planetary Sciences","cited_by":2,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province; State Key Laboratory of Coastal and Offshore Engineering; University of British Columbia; National Natural Science Foundation of China","keywords":"Hindcast; Storm surge; Surge; Storm; China","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0002003882,0.0001681404,0.0002058252,0.0007239511,0.0001717378,0.0002570765,0.0001444863,0.0001728856,0.0004274517],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0003040432,0.00008364068,0.0001930092,0.0005705307,0.0001582484,0.0001910702,0.0002582863,0.0001662806,0.0001049349],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0002082978,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0003218579,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01172744,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01864908,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9999436,0.000003638683,0.000005870596,0.00001467931,0.00001594788,0.00001625189],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9998313,0.00002377386,0.00005328294,0.00002019187,0.00002692115,0.00004452407],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0002407035,0.00007703435,0.9468163,0.00004723782,0.00008178553,0.0007012544,0.0005450699,0.00441003,0.01955925,0.0001582413,0.0007119786,0.02665116],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000003220117,0.00004109383,0.9951013,0.000003010642,0.00001470921,0.00005040129,0.0001467054,0.003716898,0.0005006194,0.0000237123,0.0003941897,0.000004132906],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9992828,0.00003229378,0.0001405522,0.00001187599,0.000004672147,0.000002157043,0.0002315083,0.00001225408,0.0002819812],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9989049,0.00004129522,0.0001228451,0.000006452382,0.000009107564,0.000003285077,0.0007374543,0.000002628828,0.0001719783],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01172744,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.02331841,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03588195203449967,"score_gpt":0.2616229340644037,"score_spread":0.225740982029904,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}