{"id":"W4416794335","doi":"10.1093/jeea/jvaf052","title":"<i>Marshall Lecture 2025:</i> Political Information and Network Effects","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of the European Economic Association","topic":"Media Influence and Politics","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Kellogg's (Canada)","funders":"","keywords":"Politics; Presidential system; Presidential campaign; Randomized experiment; Mobilization; Presidential election; Replication (statistics); Yield (engineering)","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002311892,0.00005036564,0.0001137275,0.00003903468,0.0002299274,0.0001103912,0.0001791152,0.00005313741,0.000009122701],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0012549,0.00003912358,0.00006687952,0.00006050494,0.00004088587,0.000363701,0.00003902857,0.0001898249,0.00003967742],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0006009379,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0002412572,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00006132701,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00006504084,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9987175,0.0006190905,0.0003053395,0.00003490621,0.0001110465,0.0002121298],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9989042,0.000442012,0.0004529042,0.00006082776,0.0000714169,0.00006869975],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00002368161,0.00002221462,0.446777,0.00004941716,0.0002177768,0.000002564319,0.006522724,0.0009665368,0.00001817822,0.3020897,0.2185728,0.02473736],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0007112219,0.00003685218,0.2687356,0.0001569894,0.0001276651,0.000002875804,0.0005562153,0.00008747999,0.00006751955,0.03602412,0.6933653,0.0001281322],"study_design_candidate":"not_applicable","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.530856,0.0003237942,0.0003449616,0.02718334,0.005979978,0.0002358911,0.000005616948,0.00001881921,0.4350516],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9930838,0.0001275885,0.00006582493,0.00439678,0.001400528,3.62156e-7,6.286398e-7,0.000003314537,0.0009211926],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.4747925,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1768439,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.005125172971403001,"score_gpt":0.2451396222101064,"score_spread":0.2400144492387034,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}