{"id":"W4416909302","doi":"10.1515/ev-2025-0021","title":"Why Did Putin Invade Ukraine? Why Did Hamas Attack Israel? Answers Suggested by Economic Models of Dictatorship and Terrorism","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"The Economists Voice","topic":"Environmental and Biological Research in Conflict Zones","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Western University","funders":"","keywords":"Offensive; Dictatorship; Terrorism; Economic model; Middle East","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.000594858,0.0002514685,0.0003135408,0.00003409677,0.000206956,0.00005745938,0.0006643446,0.0001357308,0.0007320354],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00005970166,0.0001754708,0.00009023803,0.00008540288,0.001127648,0.00026245,0.0006524951,0.000235889,0.0001972401],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0002376039,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00001373556,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.002541378,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0005717252,"domain_scores_codex":[0.998336,0.0001542009,0.0004118013,0.0005379212,0.0001182732,0.0004418597],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.998751,0.0004799512,0.0001466799,0.0004414149,0.000003043168,0.0001778746],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.001117634,0.0008860852,0.5136496,0.0002721503,0.0005663403,0.0000188895,0.002792492,0.01055493,0.09476519,0.003620182,0.3427032,0.02905326],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.002556162,0.0005755032,0.1611936,0.000103385,0.00009108506,0.00001484796,0.0008925142,0.02523993,0.02619994,0.007343319,0.7746185,0.001171158],"study_design_candidate":"not_applicable","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9762091,0.0003921095,0.0000852833,0.008953396,0.0001028902,0.000372069,0.00009489313,0.00002930685,0.01376095],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9926571,0.0005246453,0.00006187738,0.003976116,0.00003441113,0.0000382346,0.00002300014,0.00001414381,0.002670478],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.4319153,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.8015274,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02316902219261307,"score_gpt":0.2591534278062846,"score_spread":0.2359844056136715,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}