{"id":"W4416936525","doi":"10.1111/cwe.12622","title":"A Quantitative Analysis of the US–China Trade Tension","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"China & World Economy","topic":"Global trade and economics","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":1,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Tariff; Welfare; China; Trade diversion; General equilibrium theory; Quantitative analysis (chemistry); Trade barrier; Applied general equilibrium; Quantitative assessment; Economic integration","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0003626517,0.000219232,0.0008335133,0.0007971125,0.0001665963,0.0000677812,0.0005255959,0.0000785762,0.0004395596],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00005131652,0.0002099125,0.0006250759,0.001706592,0.0001357944,0.0002509874,0.0001239962,0.0002099286,0.0001045232],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001570799,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00003529284,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00056653,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0007691154,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9982166,0.00002244866,0.000926248,0.0005021394,0.00001734749,0.0003151747],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9986575,0.00006506906,0.0005206978,0.0006825657,0.00001088973,0.00006330935],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00001983954,0.00008157705,0.3481449,0.00002583832,0.00108691,5.652487e-7,0.0002411501,0.003669603,0.000007160058,0.6437491,0.002780187,0.0001932286],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0003733161,0.00002322526,0.811771,0.00002257961,0.0002196057,4.751035e-7,0.00004650866,0.02356724,0.00009258656,0.06806965,0.09558693,0.0002268211],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.6885414,0.001401486,0.0006174258,0.004955761,0.0005346745,0.000259283,0.0001730087,0.00002819456,0.3034887],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9957533,0.00007458889,0.0004224905,0.001009098,0.00002661375,0.00001818927,0.00002089345,0.00001405459,0.002660717],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.5756794,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.8559983,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03132365988375008,"score_gpt":0.227693210633519,"score_spread":0.1963695507497689,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}