{"id":"W4416970416","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.5856838","title":"Attribution of Runoff Decrease in a Semi-Arid Basin Using a Budyko–Elasticity Framework: Quantifying of Compound Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities","year":2025,"lang":"","type":"preprint","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"University of Regina","funders":"","keywords":"Surface runoff; Climate change; Aridification; Hydrology (agriculture); Precipitation; Water resources; Arid; Structural basin; Drainage basin","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0006111646,0.0002871671,0.0003118508,0.0008206169,0.000315024,0.0008586212,0.0005749297,0.0008264777,0.0007295298],"category_scores_gemma":[0.001107549,0.0002457188,0.0005136945,0.0009495039,0.0005742552,0.0006627925,0.0006856292,0.0003584196,0.00005142103],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0007968214,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0006559264,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01521929,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.008755228,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9998527,0.00004220983,0.000008842819,0.00005523532,0.0000148781,0.00002621058],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9996237,0.0001510013,0.00008709654,0.00003889901,0.00003830412,0.00006105578],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001764892,0.0001092999,0.09203476,0.00005519454,0.0001139932,0.0002241149,0.0001135456,0.8829625,0.005963774,0.00886849,0.0002299737,0.00914789],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000007906604,0.00001470212,0.03476662,0.000003177311,0.00001371767,0.0000230739,0.00005185082,0.9628929,0.0004301301,0.001677229,0.0001079803,0.00001055617],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9881478,0.00006506154,0.0104936,0.0001067162,0.000008295796,0.0000159249,0.0002154958,0.00004986652,0.0008972316],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9986274,0.00002523149,0.001161159,0.00000353877,0.000003519324,0.00000309546,0.00006788104,0.000006471928,0.0001016406],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01521929,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.03026146,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.04276323686567303,"score_gpt":0.3083946427355466,"score_spread":0.2656314058698736,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}