{"id":"W4416985731","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01262-y","title":"Jet stream response to future Arctic sea ice loss not underestimated by climate models","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","topic":"Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics","field":"Earth and Planetary Sciences","cited_by":1,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Environment and Climate Change Canada","funders":"National Science Foundation","keywords":"Jet stream; Climate model; Sea ice; Climate change; Arctic ice pack; Arctic; Robustness (evolution); Constraint (computer-aided design)","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow","sts"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.00125158,0.0003200043,0.0003216896,0.00003108964,0.001301052,0.000410789,0.0006380491,0.0001074908,0.0002422854],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0001214438,0.0002559003,0.00005589129,0.001659217,0.0006730786,0.0009303453,0.0001601022,0.0002381633,0.0001118516],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00004225984,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0003207856,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0009972381,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0002533474,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9970741,0.00009892743,0.00035811,0.0008108687,0.0005497524,0.001108226],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9985887,0.0003392462,0.0001048073,0.0004206696,0.000136964,0.0004096067],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.003254154,0.0001952839,0.8647985,0.0004506511,0.00006157706,0.0001340438,0.002183776,0.04331319,0.002687185,0.005608432,0.001462949,0.07585028],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0009398872,0.0004426966,0.3879624,0.0002367182,0.00008251162,0.00007179671,0.006207407,0.5972923,0.0001840219,0.002452871,0.003306135,0.0008212191],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9890273,0.0002214111,0.002721341,0.003064733,0.0005330517,0.0002882209,0.0002430545,0.0001262788,0.003774615],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9859295,0.0008825517,0.009705512,0.00319555,0.00004622193,0.000003911763,0.0000390708,0.000007725882,0.0001899564],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.5539791,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9999991,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.00861782115671535,"score_gpt":0.2362612990702797,"score_spread":0.2276434779135643,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}