{"id":"W4417040279","doi":"10.1175/waf-d-25-0040.1","title":"Large-Scale Dynamics, Thermodynamics, and Predictability of the 4–25 February 2019 Extreme Precipitation Period in Eastern North America","year":2025,"lang":"","type":"article","venue":"Weather and Forecasting","topic":"Climate variability and models","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"McGill University","funders":"National Weather Service; Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada","keywords":"Precipitation; Ridge; Flooding (psychology); Period (music); Predictability; Flash flood; Trough (economics); Snow","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0002177694,0.0001411294,0.0001547501,0.0003909997,0.0004842422,0.0005798001,0.0002540944,0.0002716996,0.001018285],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0006852405,0.0001428663,0.0002142615,0.0004230582,0.0003340632,0.0004007003,0.0003672121,0.0002866884,0.00007694509],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0008246577,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0005367632,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.06179757,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.05989854,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9999411,0.00000881198,0.000004159262,0.00001700466,0.00001192976,0.00001693039],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9997906,0.00004427383,0.00005478958,0.00001452479,0.00005471831,0.00004108621],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001087544,0.0001258384,0.8379706,0.00005724072,0.0001630524,0.0007926605,0.0003288293,0.1379108,0.009488723,0.001850789,0.003103894,0.008098855],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00001152372,0.00001596655,0.8680446,0.000009497263,0.00001654888,0.00004250545,0.0002308876,0.1292365,0.0004407923,0.0009613096,0.0009718869,0.00001806366],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9980823,0.00006178461,0.0002957104,0.0002123825,0.00001040064,0.000004859486,0.0003239815,0.00003543024,0.0009732513],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9995992,0.00001845828,0.00009995227,0.00001257713,0.000007649509,0.00000350331,0.000166174,0.000003509958,0.0000891223],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.06179757,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1228757,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.0159050567599623,"score_gpt":0.2177153954538352,"score_spread":0.2018103386938729,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}