{"id":"W4417138178","doi":"10.1111/jcms.70064","title":"Fiscal Consolidation and Support for the Common Currency","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"JCMS Journal of Common Market Studies","topic":"European Monetary and Fiscal Policies","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Toronto","funders":"","keywords":"Austerity; Consolidation (business); Eurobarometer; European union; Currency union; Recession; Fiscal union; Fiscal policy; Fiscal multiplier; Optimum currency area","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001140935,0.0001109697,0.0004536143,0.000138795,0.0002532699,0.00004944821,0.0001978487,0.0000312227,0.00003329338],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0002823889,0.00008185737,0.0001248332,0.0001057573,0.0001897221,0.0001577864,0.0001028678,0.0001741439,0.000004697321],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00002201121,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.000008093451,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.000005181118,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0000132024,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9989732,0.00004057374,0.0007100819,0.000100084,0.00003150396,0.0001445655],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9984685,0.0008490732,0.0004510638,0.0001401903,0.00006030085,0.00003085104],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0004169913,0.0001729275,0.4348919,0.0002509482,0.00117429,0.000008058455,0.001475188,0.00004369942,0.000004863995,0.1528193,0.3861189,0.02262292],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0009786828,0.0002873907,0.4154095,0.00008050772,0.00008740398,0.00002025367,0.0005774443,0.0006194599,0.0000213914,0.09335948,0.4884026,0.0001558655],"study_design_candidate":"not_applicable","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.3764281,0.2279228,0.007167391,0.05808548,0.005843477,0.001130163,0.0003899659,0.00004661305,0.3229861],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9866552,0.009011219,0.0001595259,0.0007989599,0.0001497832,0.000006323301,0.000001877254,0.00000782731,0.003209254],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.6102272,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.3338047,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.05509493143971652,"score_gpt":0.3016528642794063,"score_spread":0.2465579328396898,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}