{"id":"W4417145181","doi":"10.1111/1475-679x.70031","title":"Public Information, Relative Overconfidence, and Capital Flows","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of Accounting Research","topic":"Sports Analytics and Performance","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Queen's University","funders":"","keywords":"Overconfidence effect; Exploit; Capital (architecture); Capital market; Public information; Race (biology); Public good","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.00307112,0.0002534911,0.0004274813,0.0009943699,0.0003818515,0.002215775,0.0003395539,0.0009252556,0.00623166],"category_scores_gemma":[0.03254776,0.0001867024,0.0001770849,0.0007275302,0.0007430763,0.001814229,0.0009032424,0.001189115,0.0002950302],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0008234199,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0003696488,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.002194952,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00161572,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9988812,0.0003471115,0.0001045517,0.0001886058,0.0003238622,0.0001546262],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9298935,0.03107287,0.03185471,0.003063706,0.001836889,0.002278265],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00271511,0.002450981,0.8829772,0.0002079958,0.0003347485,0.0005589388,0.001364616,0.01131102,0.008546481,0.02022478,0.002200204,0.067108],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001305174,0.0008072805,0.9318538,0.00008452561,0.0001867572,0.0001906755,0.00110125,0.01548118,0.004426545,0.04362771,0.00202696,0.00008275788],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9919657,0.0002489602,0.001095921,0.0005051022,0.00001397508,0.00001922584,0.0001868309,0.00001592422,0.005948416],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9992203,0.0000727618,0.0001586172,0.00004864504,0.00002037459,0.00000592088,0.00005079975,0.000001647581,0.0004209241],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.00623166,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.02084702,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.0685941429295161,"score_gpt":0.3016817107101664,"score_spread":0.2330875677806503,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}