{"id":"W4417199655","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.5900876","title":"Echoes Before Collapse: Deep Learning Detection of Flickering in Complex Systems","year":2025,"lang":"","type":"preprint","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Ecosystem dynamics and resilience","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"University of Guelph; University of Waterloo","funders":"","keywords":"Flicker; Deep learning; Complex system; Range (aeronautics); Pattern recognition (psychology); Warning system; Resilience (materials science); Stability (learning theory)","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow","research_integrity"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.005045498,0.0006179798,0.001068864,0.000539656,0.0006637466,0.00019419,0.001282404,0.0005924329,0.00007552694],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0001265417,0.0006043419,0.0003762279,0.0009386688,0.0002422158,0.0002564759,0.0009206985,0.007505181,0.00003170639],"about_ca_system_candidate":true,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.009781234,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001312484,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.004193683,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.06304156,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9921016,0.0006864801,0.001853773,0.0009019483,0.0008903476,0.003565836],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.997513,0.0001081824,0.001630503,0.0004796126,0.00008931808,0.000179395],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000115265,0.0001788833,0.07096088,0.0007068119,0.0002790682,0.00001429353,0.001445539,0.8403474,0.01381941,0.004324431,6.194842e-7,0.06780737],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.001335809,0.001090353,0.04312373,0.002150238,0.0001474084,0.0008734989,0.01564421,0.9221844,0.0003589804,0.01157964,0.0006114073,0.000900315],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9393035,0.006672847,0.04954971,0.00007436128,0.001380953,0.001035355,0.00001396685,0.00003003894,0.001939309],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.980082,0.01743062,0.00006735717,0.000005022648,0.0001550059,0.00003332896,0.000008510003,0.00003788757,0.002180287],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.08183698,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9996408,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.004928498534636971,"score_gpt":0.2221966372989382,"score_spread":0.2172681387643012,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}