{"id":"W4417247747","doi":"10.1561/500000064","title":"Financial Machine Learning","year":2023,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Foundations and Trends® in Finance","topic":"Stock Market Forecasting Methods","field":"Decision Sciences","cited_by":25,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Booth University College","funders":"","keywords":"Line (geometry); Key (lock); Financial plan; Financial stability; Financial modeling","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002570639,0.0001004302,0.0001852774,0.0008223543,0.0003119328,0.0001425742,0.0002268612,0.00005203816,0.0003390506],"category_scores_gemma":[0.006068412,0.00008685015,0.00004670822,0.00388725,0.00008364829,0.0002058287,0.0001350884,0.0002004646,0.0002239034],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00001965479,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00002980651,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00007566205,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0004557588,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9984626,0.0001900087,0.0003710516,0.0003909852,0.0003457391,0.0002395834],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9982278,0.001308474,0.0001239821,0.0002483914,0.00006543002,0.00002593474],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00001125179,0.00001312478,0.05537151,9.109997e-7,0.000001155909,0.00001062528,0.0002438175,0.0007195799,0.000009457907,0.01413308,0.002842504,0.926643],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0002485654,0.00003285399,0.6911264,0.00001121313,0.000001896413,0.000006296482,0.00002454541,0.02774751,0.00000590016,0.0381185,0.2425759,0.0001004221],"study_design_candidate":"design_other","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9648153,0.0002226256,0.00514817,0.001577146,0.0007794301,0.00008067613,0.00002562133,0.0001413383,0.02720975],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9608788,0.00005759109,0.006147869,0.00003593598,0.00006050825,0.0000266512,0.00002495816,0.000009531308,0.03275812],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.9265426,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.7264894,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1436894636522928,"score_gpt":0.42514785518348,"score_spread":0.2814583915311871,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}