{"id":"W4417341955","doi":"10.33423/jabe.v27i6.7993","title":"Terms-of-Trade Policy Uncertainty and Market Returns","year":2025,"lang":"","type":"article","venue":"Journal of Applied Business and Economics","topic":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Event study; Event (particle physics); Executive summary; Production (economics); Financial market","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":true,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002989032,0.0002863581,0.0004005807,0.0007388766,0.0003625901,0.003184118,0.0003266596,0.001214223,0.001582275],"category_scores_gemma":[0.03574246,0.0001995384,0.0004112986,0.0009636543,0.0007541677,0.00236261,0.0008732657,0.002020741,0.0002416485],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001743146,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0005087604,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.003477091,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001987255,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9986356,0.0004085527,0.0001126238,0.0001758228,0.0004100931,0.0002573242],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.954751,0.02711048,0.01505115,0.00083963,0.001420729,0.0008270007],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00420785,0.001108194,0.8450738,0.0002209909,0.0006174388,0.001239919,0.001339254,0.05226628,0.007727022,0.03206941,0.00216642,0.05196341],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001077015,0.00102277,0.8795508,0.00009970083,0.0002584085,0.0002873821,0.002267238,0.06164078,0.005374962,0.04413494,0.00508595,0.0001693536],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9911224,0.001012729,0.001401421,0.00113975,0.00003688843,0.00001893835,0.0001590817,0.00001507934,0.005093712],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9992722,0.0002599757,0.00007098026,0.00005509895,0.0000336314,0.00000351571,0.00004753357,0.00000313607,0.0002539742],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.003477091,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.01580775,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01038262437652234,"score_gpt":0.213749798694465,"score_spread":0.2033671743179427,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}