{"id":"W4417397462","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103881","title":"Expectation-driven term structure of equity and bond yields","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of Monetary Economics","topic":"Financial Markets and Investment Strategies","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Bank of Canada","funders":"","keywords":"Dividend; Predictability; Equity (law); Bond; Dividend payout ratio; Dividend yield; Maturity (psychological); Yield curve","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.003708054,0.0004026412,0.0006927853,0.0007718219,0.0003026455,0.001399882,0.001258997,0.001558017,0.003454366],"category_scores_gemma":[0.02794843,0.0007831365,0.0006167135,0.0005397157,0.0008017256,0.002992981,0.0007301783,0.001541092,0.0005070737],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0008767236,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0006292753,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0030655,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.003081789,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9995357,0.0001701726,0.00002280613,0.0001178801,0.00008033048,0.00007326705],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9876611,0.008619837,0.001492685,0.0005943428,0.001038777,0.0005931357],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0005100585,0.0002195337,0.04930459,0.0001309329,0.0002049189,0.0008781982,0.0003429292,0.6981958,0.009169455,0.2224377,0.003520532,0.0150854],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00001908945,0.00003909265,0.01606529,0.00001060631,0.00001873569,0.0001113302,0.0000328361,0.9378307,0.000618497,0.04503297,0.0001868882,0.00003393754],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9307808,0.0004800082,0.06259287,0.001215981,0.00006703893,0.00002378919,0.0005067889,0.0001590024,0.00417379],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9962549,0.0001557798,0.001488208,0.00004634738,0.0000382558,0.000007355844,0.0002471131,0.00003774338,0.001724248],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.003708054,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.01961029,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02134021768716606,"score_gpt":0.2278847767993232,"score_spread":0.2065445591121572,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}