{"id":"W4417406866","doi":"10.1177/09567976251401538","title":"Is Overconfidence a Trait? An Adversarial Collaboration","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Psychological Science","topic":"Paranormal Experiences and Beliefs","field":"Psychology","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Regina","funders":"","keywords":"Overconfidence effect; Adversarial system; Set (abstract data type); Trait; Confirmatory factor analysis; Deception; Measure (data warehouse); Raw data","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.009846183,0.0001655383,0.0004089216,0.0007917171,0.001682233,0.003019934,0.0005693042,0.0005363034,0.001437215],"category_scores_gemma":[0.05462407,0.0002834785,0.0001758948,0.0006246126,0.004099372,0.002122466,0.002959201,0.002348326,0.0001539327],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0005103822,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0007807532,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.001721091,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00206701,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9918998,0.003493824,0.000497192,0.001040003,0.002508881,0.0005602285],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9412353,0.02190598,0.01795329,0.01063509,0.003513763,0.004756549],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001661756,0.0001877264,0.8870091,0.00004756355,0.0001142833,0.0004936746,0.07176627,0.0002001232,0.003535192,0.004592434,0.0006616455,0.0312259],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00001668813,0.0003147366,0.907251,0.0001017195,0.00004497102,0.002160268,0.06678667,0.001788243,0.002244751,0.0151,0.004092074,0.00009884821],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9958622,0.00006967961,0.001527781,0.0007209558,0.00001235023,0.000006997479,0.00001712725,0.000007638696,0.001775318],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9995953,0.00001781751,0.0002090715,0.00007884624,0.000005602268,0.00000350192,0.000008171372,0.000002392294,0.00007930074],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.009846183,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.05207223,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.0437271180507162,"score_gpt":0.4587829970423487,"score_spread":0.4150558789916325,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}