{"id":"W4417523748","doi":"10.48550/arxiv.2504.21579","title":"Uncertainty, bias and the institution bootstrapping problem","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"ArXiv.org","topic":"Evolutionary Game Theory and Cooperation","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"Mitacs; Canada Research Chairs; University of Hertfordshire","keywords":"Bootstrapping (finance); Institution; Diversity (politics); Bounded rationality; Perception; Cognition; Rationality; Noise (video); Commit","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.01040812,0.0004384949,0.000998429,0.001038446,0.001642513,0.003126107,0.001337868,0.002556475,0.002416875],"category_scores_gemma":[0.06045819,0.000392169,0.0006990806,0.0006642051,0.009159093,0.005338628,0.003615938,0.002761324,0.0002367443],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.002109899,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001302379,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.001649164,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0009496119,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9941532,0.003353112,0.0002496832,0.0007824445,0.0009887498,0.0004728044],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9448265,0.04088988,0.006332282,0.005032494,0.001629769,0.001289074],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001718096,0.00006757452,0.008117675,0.0001602016,0.00007983803,0.0004084268,0.001573078,0.05039663,0.002034505,0.9014815,0.001084964,0.03442383],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00004138167,0.00003677334,0.001861663,0.00004023119,0.0000252961,0.0001450246,0.0003211601,0.0480568,0.0009519794,0.9464648,0.002018895,0.00003587677],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.5262229,0.001099088,0.4075486,0.01206334,0.0001551237,0.0001462371,0.0001658811,0.0002327122,0.05236608],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9889016,0.0001416239,0.01001227,0.0002556163,0.00002985436,0.00004675251,0.00001404608,0.00001707348,0.0005811412],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01040812,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.05504405,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.07446518052653464,"score_gpt":0.3198563236830797,"score_spread":0.2453911431565451,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}