{"id":"W4417527081","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112773","title":"An adaptive moving average for macroeconomic monitoring","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Economics Letters","topic":"Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Université du Québec à Montréal","funders":"","keywords":"Estimator; Moving average; Adaptability; Inflation (cosmology); Process (computing); Limiting; Adaptive estimator; Window (computing)","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0003932989,0.0002197352,0.0005661263,0.0003873431,0.0002408803,0.0002342948,0.0003898665,0.00007792176,0.0002166842],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00001665132,0.0003063427,0.00028596,0.0001142846,0.00004363266,0.0004471542,0.00006440918,0.0001049151,0.0001710751],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0003708552,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00002106418,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0004143906,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00009996697,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9981747,0.00001095833,0.0007710651,0.0006435923,0.00000869812,0.0003909431],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9989387,0.00007786915,0.0003394882,0.000542119,0.00001796452,0.00008386342],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001624342,0.0001018005,0.07680383,0.00009187287,0.001009776,0.000003189229,0.0005859595,0.05316136,0.0008411828,0.8576122,0.003471619,0.006154758],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.003946038,0.0003164419,0.04329061,0.0001007549,0.0001012455,0.000006703035,0.001068612,0.3752953,0.001688535,0.09297197,0.4788372,0.00237668],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9266705,0.0005363827,0.05977776,0.001844055,0.001601589,0.0004202119,0.0003297816,0.00007662084,0.008743116],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9936072,0.00005179945,0.003688853,0.0009231055,0.0004038123,0.0001035631,0.00002631345,0.00003882836,0.001156476],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.7646403,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9999388,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02150308677313312,"score_gpt":0.2230270263985012,"score_spread":0.2015239396253681,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}