{"id":"W4417531563","doi":"10.48550/arxiv.2512.15821","title":"Nova Explosions in 2040","year":2025,"lang":"","type":"preprint","venue":"ArXiv.org","topic":"Astrophysical Phenomena and Observations","field":"Physics and Astronomy","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Wind Energy Institute of Canada","funders":"","keywords":"Nova (rocket); Ejecta; Thermonuclear fusion; White dwarf; White paper; Explosive material","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0003141578,0.0003191278,0.0002282647,0.000648882,0.0008823305,0.001136416,0.000150176,0.0004585666,0.002008658],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0008101452,0.0001140843,0.0002319424,0.0006808683,0.0006419545,0.0006541151,0.001315959,0.0006466965,0.0005596111],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0007047209,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0003303829,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.001990999,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.002200875,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9998661,0.00001946409,0.000007548208,0.00003644438,0.00004209004,0.0000283072],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9997578,0.00004603569,0.00008055534,0.00003559745,0.00002631285,0.00005362561],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.001177791,0.0001370771,0.459603,0.0007981086,0.000293163,0.004227137,0.002629705,0.002432611,0.03737705,0.09754054,0.02147443,0.3723094],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00003081531,0.0001777816,0.8087163,0.0002736147,0.00005582326,0.003508281,0.001030918,0.0011852,0.00459427,0.02677134,0.1536137,0.00004201818],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8436611,0.0160309,0.01114246,0.002719495,0.0008514459,0.0001152884,0.003506758,0.0005360411,0.1214366],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9796841,0.003916843,0.003467789,0.0007421999,0.0002377856,0.0000324234,0.002879404,0.00004687038,0.008992679],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.002008658,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.006719589,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.07308410270925841,"score_gpt":0.2952053700943864,"score_spread":0.2221212673851279,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}