{"id":"W6890272943","doi":"10.34989/tr-24","title":"Economic Projections and Econometric Modelling: Recent Developments at the Bank of Canada","year":2024,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Bank of Canada Research","topic":"Canadian Policy and Governance","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Bank of Canada","funders":"","keywords":"Variety (cybernetics); Econometric model; Software; Econometric analysis; Economic model; Range (aeronautics)","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001095197,0.0000597289,0.0001127706,0.0001652079,0.0005347217,0.00004099744,0.0002444977,0.00003574188,0.000404067],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0002074912,0.00005292154,0.00001683836,0.0006791243,0.0002488391,0.00006565628,0.00006509027,0.0001564528,0.000001322614],"about_ca_system_candidate":true,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.003728337,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.04847035,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":true,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.999796,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.9999893,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9985127,0.0001088976,0.0002029702,0.0001852334,0.0005515662,0.0004385839],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9990426,0.000473915,0.00004240464,0.0001439161,0.0001090495,0.0001881586],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"not_applicable","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0000150369,0.00000581123,0.0006357172,0.00007231463,0.00005855126,0.00001100602,0.001603272,0.001414193,0.000005851941,0.03847886,0.9491626,0.00853681],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00005015453,0.000008631286,0.001834322,0.00002171937,0.000002558573,0.000001265503,0.000448257,0.0008983852,0.0001969766,0.0004389173,0.9960364,0.00006241833],"study_design_candidate":"not_applicable","study_design_consensus":"not_applicable","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.7164457,0.006541071,0.000009080472,0.06882948,0.0008535758,0.000822555,0.001266468,0.000009294538,0.2052227],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9604447,0.001253603,0.00001702338,0.0001183363,0.00007944801,0.00001980266,0.00000221182,0.000008121179,0.03805676],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.2439989,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.974947,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.08966799904036933,"score_gpt":0.3456865457344952,"score_spread":0.2560185466941259,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}