{"id":"W6904671695","doi":"10.14288/1.0041802","title":"Ozone ensemble forecasts: 1. A new ensemble design","year":2011,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Open Collections","topic":"Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols","field":"Earth and Planetary Sciences","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Mesoscale meteorology; CMAQ; Ensemble forecasting; Ensemble average; Air quality index; Mean squared error; Population; Precipitation","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002162319,0.0005423328,0.0006776814,0.0004907264,0.0003045892,0.0006751032,0.000799994,0.0004829335,0.001809851],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0044798,0.0003189085,0.0005153487,0.0004514121,0.0001311683,0.001108104,0.0007930045,0.0008926913,0.0003925169],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0004428553,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0006070533,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.003794472,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.004669487,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9991136,0.0003509579,0.00005298823,0.0001387321,0.000288863,0.00005484425],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9988652,0.0003422446,0.00009913621,0.0002059501,0.0004431145,0.00004427772],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0004509192,0.00009448815,0.01070586,0.0001224011,0.0003310558,0.00004252782,0.0000517203,0.6129277,0.005374574,0.009723006,0.008674765,0.351501],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00004062769,0.00009640057,0.00158061,0.00001052367,0.00004293243,0.0000144437,0.000004655511,0.9896394,0.00150468,0.002086873,0.004962873,0.00001602074],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.0435574,0.0004970515,0.9491378,0.0002703506,0.0003021172,0.0002637607,0.001823343,0.00111811,0.003030013],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.5085904,0.0006382614,0.4810999,0.0002197516,0.0003943622,0.0008422468,0.004208849,0.0002086445,0.003797551],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.003794472,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.01143557,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.07188263905015059,"score_gpt":0.2326108327791316,"score_spread":0.160728193728981,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}