{"id":"W6912142528","doi":"10.5281/zenodo.15719154","title":"Evaluating the Ripple Effects of Tariff Policies: Comprehensive Approach","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)","topic":"Global trade and economics","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Tariff; Robustness (evolution); Investment (military); Counterfactual thinking; Interdependence; Commercial policy; Vector autoregression; Foreign direct investment","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.01172148,0.001064452,0.001621247,0.005037827,0.0005003931,0.003409835,0.001146726,0.00112235,0.001505025],"category_scores_gemma":[0.02204594,0.0005816289,0.00193116,0.005047035,0.00102865,0.002817381,0.002825783,0.001091614,0.0001645183],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001729572,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.003058164,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.007917166,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.007946482,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9951213,0.002224831,0.000319342,0.0005718111,0.001511148,0.000251556],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9822531,0.01202498,0.002070921,0.001779441,0.001589941,0.0002815916],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0006228187,0.0008147535,0.198456,0.002802944,0.00625512,0.000651048,0.00126412,0.4522265,0.003707682,0.05656966,0.003332026,0.2732974],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00012836,0.002006969,0.2458777,0.001637141,0.00402089,0.0002844455,0.004215028,0.5902469,0.008115537,0.1196008,0.02351512,0.0003511967],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.7070542,0.01338589,0.2493848,0.001748589,0.000190034,0.00120777,0.006552338,0.0006188357,0.01985746],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9230133,0.005650874,0.06581389,0.0003019677,0.0001386909,0.0004037321,0.003167918,0.00006107013,0.00144867],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01172148,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.06198984,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1218185378301807,"score_gpt":0.2789948888629488,"score_spread":0.1571763510327681,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}