{"id":"W6920653135","doi":"10.60692/kx708-m5b07","title":"Time series analysis and short-term forecasting of monkeypox outbreak trends in the 10 major affected countries","year":2024,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Greater South Information System","topic":"Poxvirus research and outbreaks","field":"Immunology and Microbiology","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Monkeypox; Time series; Autoregressive integrated moving average; Autoregressive model; Confidence interval; Outbreak; Trend analysis; Data set","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001074065,0.0004263042,0.000271654,0.001203008,0.0001589012,0.0006632045,0.0003414884,0.0004157725,0.0006836705],"category_scores_gemma":[0.003181151,0.0001481049,0.0005156261,0.001190878,0.0001263915,0.0005611427,0.000257497,0.000470529,0.0001710392],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0004368144,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0003881621,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01546488,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00753202,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9997436,0.00008918587,0.00002444525,0.00006230346,0.00004327306,0.00003716391],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9989089,0.000578714,0.000201779,0.00005950807,0.0001924555,0.00005878321],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0002806618,0.0001878308,0.45921,0.0001241168,0.000278803,0.0006115498,0.000255334,0.491746,0.002273044,0.00177793,0.00211283,0.04114197],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00000738773,0.0001339226,0.1192814,0.00002863379,0.00005013352,0.00007714507,0.000346232,0.877722,0.0008197989,0.0006659409,0.0008454926,0.00002178601],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9916267,0.0001756774,0.006166663,0.0001683888,0.0000249983,0.00001523693,0.0009856555,0.00006593655,0.0007707609],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9967005,0.000115896,0.001771618,0.000007761542,0.000008721645,0.00001089027,0.001151727,0.000004271457,0.0002287502],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01546488,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.03074974,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.023245063942846,"score_gpt":0.2370517512280749,"score_spread":0.2138066872852289,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}