{"id":"W6922540190","doi":"10.13118/imtlucca/e-theses/442","title":"Policy evaluation and machine learning in international economics","year":2025,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"The Signal Calculus: beyond message based coordination for services (IMT School for Advanced Studies Lucca)","topic":"Economic and Technological Innovation","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Productivity; Exploit; Spillover effect; Counterfactual conditional; Matching (statistics); Empirical research; Counterfactual thinking; Feature selection","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.03097612,0.001368952,0.002886229,0.003996592,0.001128729,0.006333409,0.002237841,0.003272578,0.007041339],"category_scores_gemma":[0.08409174,0.0006267513,0.001209672,0.003775507,0.006179018,0.007483045,0.003048273,0.003907952,0.0005722899],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.006827168,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.004381398,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.006268271,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.004202304,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9836289,0.01328047,0.0004891004,0.001118801,0.001056407,0.0004263158],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9087809,0.08082912,0.003835505,0.003279885,0.002536525,0.0007379931],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001201166,0.0002107385,0.006845574,0.0005457916,0.0002868252,0.00009835755,0.0002338141,0.317218,0.00007801281,0.5760798,0.005411412,0.09287155],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00003807077,0.00004093437,0.0008159037,0.0001734195,0.0000198929,0.00001377402,0.0000852025,0.3518322,0.00009981066,0.6434786,0.00337749,0.00002477348],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"methods","genre_scores_codex":[0.08222851,0.02439734,0.7726356,0.05725281,0.001151984,0.0005787134,0.0009367574,0.000775708,0.06004256],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.892812,0.008262099,0.0876714,0.002158338,0.001527004,0.0006545099,0.0005550019,0.0001460178,0.006213724],"genre_candidate":"methods","genre_consensus":"methods","teacher_disagreement_score":0.03097612,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1638193,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03315743071845693,"score_gpt":0.3053340984846311,"score_spread":0.2721766677661741,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}