{"id":"W6989809311","doi":"","title":"Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050 : a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021","year":2024,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Portuguese National Funding Agency for Science, Research and Technology (RCAAP Project by FCT)","topic":"Health disparities and outcomes","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"Biotechnology Industry Research Assistance Council; Science and Engineering Research Board; Medical Research Council; Rede de Química e Tecnologia; Idorsia Pharmaceuticals; Department of Science and Technology, Ministry of Science and Technology, India; H. Lundbeck A/S; Fondation Botnar; National Research Foundation; National Institute for Health and Care Research; The Wellcome Trust DBT India Alliance; Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft; Svenska Läkaresällskapet; Universidade do Porto; Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Ensino Superior; Wellcome Trust; Ministry of Science and ICT, South Korea; Novo Nordisk; Biogen; Hjärt-Lungfonden; National Institutes of Health; Conquer Cancer Foundation; Korea Institute for Advancement of Technology; Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico; National Research Foundation of Korea; Indian Council of Medical Research; Ministry of Education; Department of Biotechnology, Ministry of Science and Technology, India; AstraZeneca; European Commission; Universidade Nova de Lisboa; Alexander von Humboldt-Stiftung; Amicus Therapeutics; University of Oxford; Fresenius Medical Care North America; St. Jude Children's Research Hospital; National Institute of Mental Health and Neurosciences; Japan Society for the Promotion of Science; Laboratório Associado para a Química Verde; Astellas Pharma; World Cancer Research Fund; Gilead Sciences; International Association for Suicide Prevention; World Health Organization; Canadian Institutes of Health Research; Korean Diabetes Association; Bloomberg Philanthropies; Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung; Alexion Pharmaceuticals; National Institute of Mental Health; Ministerul Cercetării, Inovării şi Digitalizării; International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society; American Diabetes Association; Applied Molecular Biosciences Unit; Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy; Sanofi; Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia; Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; Amgen","keywords":"Burden of disease; Life expectancy; Disease burden; Disease; Public health; Quality-adjusted life year; Disability-adjusted life year; Risk factor","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002290138,0.0007915266,0.0007521761,0.001675151,0.0004531814,0.0013332,0.000898613,0.001578871,0.003289389],"category_scores_gemma":[0.003912496,0.0004601473,0.002126979,0.003307686,0.0002846501,0.001674289,0.000757154,0.001518992,0.0006063741],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.003490382,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0017243,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.114738,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.06699044,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9994615,0.0002695886,0.00003272808,0.00009116268,0.00005829272,0.00008677079],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9986499,0.0007099325,0.0001650463,0.00007788782,0.0002723028,0.0001250377],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0007645499,0.0001015598,0.06363411,0.000348712,0.0006795567,0.0005039701,0.0003460514,0.864075,0.0003524707,0.01852431,0.03355369,0.01711599],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001074524,0.0001285,0.04041129,0.0003097368,0.0003608065,0.0002763279,0.001047893,0.9278893,0.0003306671,0.01361423,0.01541086,0.0001127925],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8091542,0.006109606,0.02945448,0.01121306,0.0007202715,0.0001989299,0.1264978,0.0008600754,0.01579159],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9501724,0.00201427,0.009166843,0.0002798507,0.0001106607,0.0002314201,0.03550943,0.0000895095,0.002425635],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.114738,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.2281402,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.07358191400770121,"score_gpt":0.420176379359722,"score_spread":0.3465944653520208,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}