{"id":"W6999557661","doi":"","title":"Decomposing changes in first birth trends : quantum, timing, or variance","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","topic":"Family Dynamics and Relationships","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Postponement; Fertility; Birth rate; Human fertility; Cohort; Variance (accounting); Estimation; First trimester; Developed country","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001763588,0.00009763274,0.0001948098,0.0003841364,0.000541272,0.0001483488,0.0002738019,0.000169591,0.0003091855],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0006502187,0.00009923791,0.00004505371,0.0007134508,0.0002590725,0.0001291962,0.0001166768,0.000465811,0.000009703638],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0006385449,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0005514848,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0007778322,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.2423782,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9982131,0.0003382089,0.0002584672,0.0003859787,0.0001933808,0.0006109123],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9986182,0.0008742936,0.00005565198,0.0002624424,0.00006249695,0.0001269289],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001781592,0.0006092628,0.2620703,0.000105984,0.00006726989,0.0005340584,0.0301874,0.01235161,0.0002369428,0.09652819,0.0002626201,0.5968682],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.001696227,0.000148503,0.1911856,0.0004432587,0.000006821628,0.00001602642,0.02864156,0.1151639,0.00005215349,0.004426011,0.6574529,0.0007670348],"study_design_candidate":"not_applicable","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.7252635,0.0002530421,0.000008281198,0.00842434,0.0005073753,0.0002019343,0.0000167446,0.00004017573,0.2652846],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9714236,0.01209989,0.0007099223,0.00009191142,0.0001464638,0.00003528273,0.00001080804,0.00002155617,0.01546052],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.6571903,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.7714465,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.07793187475105197,"score_gpt":0.3649557379670478,"score_spread":0.2870238632159959,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}