{"id":"W6999557661","doi":"","title":"Decomposing changes in first birth trends : quantum, timing, or variance","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","topic":"Family Dynamics and Relationships","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Postponement; Fertility; Birth rate; Human fertility; Cohort; Variance (accounting); Estimation; First trimester; Developed country","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.003321863,0.0003490863,0.0005712936,0.002165542,0.0003544568,0.001638639,0.0005121593,0.0004401592,0.001660706],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01012682,0.0002656654,0.0009790909,0.003201716,0.0009572005,0.001701524,0.001055302,0.000676563,0.0001646988],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0007399032,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0006136543,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01262151,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01145347,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9987283,0.0003447596,0.0001182599,0.0003623931,0.0002116434,0.0002345797],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9926518,0.003702391,0.001851521,0.001011024,0.0004853748,0.0002978379],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001337341,0.0000616438,0.9437139,0.00006284187,0.0004615707,0.00009954607,0.0007573789,0.007594152,0.001002828,0.01020042,0.0004304095,0.03548153],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000006092347,0.00008665659,0.9656057,0.00003468643,0.0000865101,0.00005178184,0.0006224744,0.02121073,0.0002971176,0.01061206,0.001358437,0.0000277361],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9739237,0.0006091094,0.02086974,0.000370859,0.00005043069,0.00005754315,0.001231959,0.00007190513,0.0028146],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9965262,0.0001944939,0.001829317,0.00002326355,0.0000340792,0.00001847559,0.0009071664,0.00001459464,0.0004524565],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01262151,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.02509612,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.07793187475105197,"score_gpt":0.3649557379670478,"score_spread":0.2870238632159959,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}