{"id":"W7010383128","doi":"","title":"The impact of oil-market shocks on stock returns in major oil-exporting countries: A Markov-switching approach","year":2017,"lang":"en","type":"other","venue":"Otago University Research Archive (University of Otago)","topic":"","field":"","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Stock (firearms); Oil price; Stock market; Stock market bubble; Vector autoregression; Oil supply","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow","sts","open_science","research_integrity","insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":["sts"],"category_scores_codex":[0.005512567,0.0009831797,0.001762768,0.005032876,0.002390693,0.0001360293,0.00630639,0.0007467252,0.001818114],"category_scores_gemma":[0.001054677,0.001014161,0.001146264,0.001518671,0.003974667,0.0005974055,0.003200348,0.003770781,0.0002147665],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.002255052,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.002395792,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":true,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.05957409,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.03622303,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9894898,0.003159715,0.0004816965,0.001724467,0.002876457,0.002267846],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9907978,0.002325852,0.002265685,0.003245829,0.0006274735,0.000737429],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"not_applicable","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.01834344,0.001514147,0.02081056,0.00190693,0.003389708,0.002143339,0.01127052,0.0001299081,0.002936047,0.001598631,0.9184088,0.01754799],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0181441,0.002879948,0.03770646,0.01010013,0.0006132116,0.00007598992,0.06006591,0.01134135,0.00004424698,0.000556298,0.8547409,0.003731423],"study_design_candidate":"not_applicable","study_design_consensus":"not_applicable","genre_codex":"other","genre_gemma":"other","genre_scores_codex":[0.03607247,0.0002701208,0.0003181749,0.0001426574,0.0000944682,0.0008834969,0.004390572,0.000160662,0.9576674],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.0843199,0.003945945,0.002635691,0.000004817148,0.0001892344,0.000001568052,0.0003333616,0.0007468277,0.9078227],"genre_candidate":"other","genre_consensus":"other","teacher_disagreement_score":0.06366785,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9992309,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03379584776765684,"score_gpt":0.3016352092024213,"score_spread":0.2678393614347645,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}