{"id":"W7010383128","doi":"","title":"The impact of oil-market shocks on stock returns in major oil-exporting countries: A Markov-switching approach","year":2017,"lang":"en","type":"other","venue":"Otago University Research Archive (University of Otago)","topic":"","field":"","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Stock (firearms); Oil price; Stock market; Stock market bubble; Vector autoregression; Oil supply","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001441161,0.0004223672,0.0007820238,0.0009046679,0.0003816623,0.001113336,0.000717055,0.0008277596,0.005651601],"category_scores_gemma":[0.005649281,0.0004814306,0.001266928,0.0004699971,0.0007727234,0.00083193,0.00097159,0.0009291455,0.000277783],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001000636,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001323385,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.03520469,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.03093095,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9996947,0.0001199732,0.00001349427,0.00004773542,0.00003600119,0.00008819909],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9960423,0.002944901,0.0004583572,0.000165499,0.0001770919,0.000212021],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0002540941,0.0001185343,0.03076508,0.00004749053,0.0002155819,0.0004221606,0.0001306915,0.9235864,0.001258194,0.0337752,0.001013749,0.008412946],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00001947124,0.00002902321,0.002906385,0.000009019363,0.00003112741,0.00001531573,0.00003410728,0.9891642,0.0002021872,0.007436716,0.000138937,0.00001352932],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9184621,0.0003253222,0.07278416,0.0009622186,0.0000309887,0.00004775358,0.001070863,0.0001513341,0.006165286],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9930711,0.0003518884,0.002687311,0.0000505169,0.00002327935,0.00003510917,0.0006196225,0.00001452351,0.003146657],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.03520469,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.06999952,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03379584776765684,"score_gpt":0.3016352092024213,"score_spread":0.2678393614347645,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}