{"id":"W7037806861","doi":"","title":"The Efficiency of 'In-Play' Australian Rules Football Betting Markets","year":2010,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"RMIT Research Repository (RMIT University Library)","topic":"Real estate and construction management","field":"Engineering","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Football; Quarter (Canadian coin); Odds; Yield (engineering); Market efficiency; Logistic regression","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0005630481,0.0001998577,0.0002131343,0.0004978919,0.0005628514,0.0001870852,0.0009471669,0.0001560333,0.000119145],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00005014307,0.0001885204,0.0001291933,0.0007807664,0.0004373796,0.0007337772,0.0003238901,0.0009819793,0.00006459315],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00009392184,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0001225791,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0003480761,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0002560009,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9977503,0.0002642175,0.0003303488,0.0003524835,0.000617436,0.0006851429],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9985479,0.0003782595,0.00007052178,0.0006918125,0.0000925766,0.0002189105],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.001244484,0.0009484788,0.2997515,0.002202451,0.001222666,0.002038788,0.004168555,0.004681251,0.2303277,0.1010338,0.2275267,0.1248536],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0006478934,0.0000584105,0.06066936,0.0001158697,0.0000238475,0.0000294726,0.001064652,0.0006836757,0.01369863,0.000458134,0.9221535,0.0003965978],"study_design_candidate":"not_applicable","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8432052,0.00006724257,0.00007800898,0.0003700804,0.000395877,0.0002966754,0.000009219199,0.0001772942,0.1554004],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.940616,0.0002999816,0.001382771,0.000005127757,0.000131605,0.0000032926,0.00001559716,0.00003818129,0.05750741],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.6946267,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.768764,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01725946146875212,"score_gpt":0.2371478830239898,"score_spread":0.2198884215552377,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}